ArmInfo.In its revised forecast for 2022, the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) expects 14.8% unemployment in Armenia (15.3% last year) against the previously forecast 16.7%.
The CBA has also revised its medium-term forecast - 15%-16% against the previously forecast 16.4- 16.9%.
The CBA monetary policy programme for the 2nd quarter of 2022 forecasts 4.9% GDP growth against the previously forecast 1.6% (5.7% last year).
The forecast GDP growth would be 3.6% for 2022 if foreign residents were not coming to Armenia in large numbers.
The nominal wages in the private sector will retain higher rates - 11.7% in 2022.
In the medium-term, along with inflation stabilized near the target and GDP gap filled, the wage increase in the private sector will slow down in line with economic productivity. Next year, the expected wage increase in the private sector is to range between 7.5% and 8.5%, to stabilize within 6%-7% by the end of the medium-term.
In the short term, the inflationary pressure from the labor market will remain, to be gradually neutralized in thee medium term.
According to the RA Statistical Committee, the annual unemployment was 15.3% in Armenia last year against 18.1% in 2020.
RUB | 4.37 | -0.01 |
USD | 401.96 | -0.67 |
EUR | 438.10 | -0.36 |
GBP | 511.98 | -1.33 |
CAD | 296.82 | -0.70 |
JPY | 26.96 | -0.10 |
CNY | 55.84 | -0.11 |
CHF | 455.17 | -0.60 |