ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia improved its forecast for 2022, expecting a real increase in exports by 5.1% and imports by 8.3%, against the previously indicated decline in exports by 1.8% and stagnation in imports. This is noted in the Monetary Policy Program (MPP) of the Central Bank for Q2 2022, published at the end of June, which also indicates an improved forecast for GDP growth for 2022 from the previous 1.6% to an updated 4.9% (against the actual 5.7% growth in 2021).
The upward revision of the export forecast by the Central Bank is associated with a rapid recovery in the volume of exports of goods and services to Russia against the backdrop of a rapid adjustment of the ruble exchange rate. In the context of anti-Russian sanctions, export opportunities from Armenia will expand to some extent, taking into account also the potential for export development. At the same time, the export of mining raw materials will slow down somewhat. As for the export of services, in the context of maintaining a tangible flow of international visitors, positive changes are expected in the growth of the tourism sector, the IT sector, and financial services.
The forecasted increase in imports by the Central Bank is due to the rapid recovery of deferred domestic demand due to accumulated savings, as well as the easing of restrictions by European countries.
The Russian-Ukrainian confrontation and anti-Russian sanctions caused certain changes in the behavior of Russian citizens, as a result of which, since March 2022, there has been a large influx of international visitors and foreign capital to Armenia, which is also reflected in the fundamental revaluation of the Armenian dram. According to the studies of the Central Bank, the growth in the influx of international visitors and finance observed during this period was mainly due to an increase in external demand, which was reflected in a significant acceleration in the export of services from Armenia. This is evidenced by the official statistical data on international tourism, according to which the share of Russian citizens among tourists visiting Armenia increased in the first quarter of this year - up to 43.7% from 34.9% a year earlier.
Strong external demand is also evidenced by a jump in the volume of some services provided, as well as a sharp acceleration of inflation in segments of the service sector, which are characterized by rather sharp prices. For example, in the field of accommodation and catering, the volume of services provided in March- April significantly exceeded not only the indicator of a year ago, but also the pre-crisis level. At the same time, the actual rent of housing has jumped sharply - and this is a significant change in the context of recent years. In the field of export of services, financial services are also noteworthy, as evidenced by the sharp increase in non-deposit accounts of non-resident individuals in Armenian banks in March-April. Thus, in the current year, from March to April inclusive, non-resident individuals opened 3.9 thousand deposit accounts and 33.3 thousand settlement accounts in Armenian banks, against 3.5 thousand and 12.7 thousand in February, respectively.
Citizens of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine registered more than 1,000 individual entrepreneurs in the state register of Armenia in March, plus about 300 individual entrepreneurs in April. These are just IT sector statistics. As a result, the volumes in the field of information and communications increased sharply in March over April by almost 35% y / y - up to 33.1 billion drams, a comparison of which with the number of newly established IPs by non-residents shows that such an increase in volumes was mainly due to the inflow of foreign capital and labor migrants.
It should be noted that according to the RA Statistical Committee, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in 2021 increased by 17.7% - up to $7.1 billion, against a 13.2% decline in 2020. In its structure, the volume of exports and imports reached double-digit growth, while a year earlier both items were in decline, and in 2019 - in almost equally more modest growth. Thus, the volume of exports changed from a 3.9% decline to 19.1% growth (against 9.4% growth in 2019), amounting to $ 3 billion, and imports - from a 17.7% decline to 16.9% growth (against 10.8% growth in 2019), amounting to $5.4 billion. Russia is the undisputed leader in Armenia's foreign trade turnover, both in terms of the overall indicator and in terms of exports and imports separately. Russia's share in Armenia's foreign trade turnover in 2021 increased from 30.6% to 31.4%, in particular, in exports - from 26.8% to 28% and in imports - from 32.6% to 33.3%. In 2021, the volume of exports to Russia increased by 24.5%, while imports from Russia increased by 19.2%, which ensured the growth of foreign trade turnover between Armenia and the Russian Federation by 20.9%.
