ArmInfo. In the new forecast for 2022, the Central Bank further improved its expectations for the unemployment rate in Armenia. It is expected that it will decrease to 14.1% (from 15.3% in 2021), against the previously forecasted decline to 14.8%. But in the medium term, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 15%, which is also below the previously indicated forecast range of 15-16%.
Such a forecast is given in the Monetary Policy Program (MPP) of the Central Bank for the third quarter of 2022, published on September 28, where it is also noted that the next improvement in expectations for GDP growth for 2022 from the previous 4.9% to 12.9% (against 5.7 % growth in 2021).
Nominal wages in the private sector will maintain high growth rates - about 15% in 2022 (against the previously indicated 11.7%). In the medium term, with a gradual adjustment in demand and stabilization of inflation near the target threshold, wage growth in the private sector will slow down and stabilize in the range of 7-8%.
Thus, in 2022, inflationary pressure will continue to come from the labor market, due to a noticeably prevailing increase in wages in the private sector over productivity. Under these conditions, the growth of costs per employee during the current year will be about 5%, and in the medium term, with the weakening of inflationary pressure, the growth in costs for labor force will stabilize in the range of 3-4%. It should be noted that according to the RA Statistical Committee, the average y-o-yl unemployment rate in Armenia decreased to 15.3% in 2021 from 18.1% in 2020.
