ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia further improved its forecast for 2022, expecting real growth in exports by 28% and imports by 24%, against the previously projected 5.1% and 8.3%, respectively. This is noted in the Monetary Policy Program (MPP) of the Central Bank for the third quarter of 2022, published on September 28, which indicates a more improved forecast for GDP growth for 2022 from the previous 4.9% to an updated 12.9% (against the actual 5.7 % growth in 2021).
The Central Bank's revision of higher export growth forecasts is due to the fact that in the context of anti- Russian sanctions, expectations have significantly improved in terms of the positive impact of the external sector on Armenia's economy, in parallel with which domestic demand has significantly intensified. In the conditions of ongoing restrictions on Russia, export opportunities from Armenia will expand, taking into account also the reassessment of the growth of export potential. At the same time, the export of mining raw materials will slow down somewhat, but its pace will be restored at the end of the year. As for the export of services, with the continued significant inflow of international visitors, the average expenditure per tourist will increase significantly. According to the Central Bank, the projected higher growth in imports is due to the accelerated recovery of domestic demand, as well as the easing of anti-COVID restrictions by European countries.
It should be noted that according to the RA Statistical Committee, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in 2021 increased by 17.7% - up to $7.1 billion, against a 13.2% decline in 2020. In its structure, the volume of exports and imports reached double-digit growth, while a year earlier both items were in decline, and in 2019 - in almost equally more modest growth. Thus, the volume of exports changed from a 3.9% decline to 19.1% growth (against 9.4% growth in 2019), amounting to $ 3 billion, and imports - from a 17.7% decline to 16.9% growth (against 10.8% growth in 2019), amounting to $5.4 billion. Russia is the undisputed leader in Armenia's foreign trade turnover, both in terms of the overall indicator and in terms of exports and imports separately. Russia's share in Armenia's foreign trade turnover in 2021 increased from 30.6% to 31.4%, in particular, in exports - from 26.8% to 28% and in imports - from 32.6% to 33.3%. In 2021, the volume of exports to Russia increased by 24.5%, while imports from Russia increased by 19.2%, which ensured the growth of foreign trade turnover between Armenia and the Russian Federation by 20.9%.
It is noteworthy that already in January-July 2022, Armenia's foreign trade turnover has grown sharply by 47.7%, which is a result of an increase in imports by 50.1% and exports by 43.9%. And much higher rates were recorded in January-August 2022: a surge in Armenia's foreign trade turnover by 56.2% was accompanied by a significant increase in both imports by 58.2% and exports by 52.9%.
