Friday, September 30 2022 11:52
Karine Melikyan

CBA significantly improves its forecast for projected export and  import growth in 2022 to 28-24%, from 5.1-8.3% previously

CBA significantly improves its forecast for projected export and  import growth in 2022 to 28-24%, from 5.1-8.3% previously

ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia further improved its forecast for 2022, expecting real growth in exports by 28% and imports by 24%, against the previously  projected 5.1% and 8.3%, respectively. This is noted in the Monetary  Policy Program (MPP) of the Central Bank for the third quarter of  2022, published on September 28, which indicates a more improved  forecast for GDP growth for 2022 from the previous 4.9% to an updated  12.9% (against the actual 5.7 % growth in 2021).

The Central Bank's revision of higher export growth forecasts is due  to the fact that in the context of anti- Russian sanctions,  expectations have significantly improved in terms of the positive  impact of the external sector on Armenia's economy, in parallel with  which domestic demand has significantly intensified.  In the  conditions of ongoing restrictions on Russia, export opportunities  from Armenia will expand, taking into account also the reassessment  of the growth of export potential. At the same time, the export of  mining raw materials will slow down somewhat, but its pace will be  restored at the end of the year. As for the export of services, with  the continued significant inflow of international visitors, the  average expenditure per tourist will increase significantly.   According to the Central Bank, the projected higher growth in imports  is due to the accelerated recovery of domestic demand, as well as the  easing of anti-COVID restrictions by European countries.

It should be noted that according to the RA Statistical Committee,   Armenia's foreign trade turnover in 2021 increased by 17.7% - up to   $7.1 billion, against a 13.2% decline in 2020. In its structure, the   volume of exports and imports reached double-digit growth, while a   year earlier both items were in decline, and in 2019 - in almost   equally more modest growth. Thus, the volume of exports changed from   a 3.9% decline to 19.1% growth (against 9.4% growth in 2019),   amounting to $ 3 billion, and imports - from a 17.7% decline to 16.9%   growth (against 10.8% growth in 2019), amounting to $5.4 billion.   Russia is the undisputed leader in Armenia's foreign trade turnover,   both in terms of the overall indicator and in terms of exports and   imports separately. Russia's share in Armenia's foreign trade   turnover in 2021 increased from 30.6% to 31.4%, in particular, in   exports - from 26.8% to 28% and in imports - from 32.6% to 33.3%. In  2021, the volume of exports to Russia increased by 24.5%, while   imports from Russia increased by 19.2%, which ensured the growth of   foreign trade turnover between Armenia and the Russian Federation by   20.9%. 

It is noteworthy that already in January-July 2022, Armenia's foreign  trade turnover has grown sharply by 47.7%, which is a result of an  increase in imports by 50.1% and exports by 43.9%. And much higher  rates were recorded in January-August 2022: a surge in Armenia's  foreign trade turnover by 56.2% was accompanied by a significant  increase in both imports by 58.2% and exports by 52.9%.

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