ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has improved its unemployment forecast for Armenia for 2022 by revising it downward to 13.6% against the previously forecast 14.1% (15.3% last year). However, in the medium-term, along with somewhat decelerating economic growth, unemployment is expected to reach the previously forecast 15%.
The forecast is contained in the CBA's monetary policy programme for the 4th quarter of 2022, which shows the improved GDP growth forecast for this year - 12.9% against the actual 5.7% in 2021.
The nominal wage in the private sector will continue rising - about 18% this year against the previously indicated 15%, due to foreign inflation and high economic activity. In the medium-term, along with gradual adjustment of demand and inflation, the wage rise in the private sector will slow down within 7-8 percent (as previously forecast).
Thus, in 2022, in the short run, the labor market will continue exerting inflationary pressure due to a wage rise prevailing over the productivity. The cost per employee is expected to record a rise of about 5%. In the medium-term, the rise will remain within 4% along with decreasing inflationary pressure. According to the statistical data, the average annual unemployment in Armenia was 15.3% last year against 18.1% in 2020.
