ArmInfo.The Armenian economy will not be able to withstand the expansion of Turkish goods. A well-known Armenian economist, professor, head of the "Alternative" Research Center Tatul Manaseryan stated in an interview with an ArmInfo correspondent.
It should be noted that on January 14, the Turkish Anadolu agency, citing diplomatic sources, reported that Turkey and Armenia could discuss the issues of restoring trade between the two countries as part of the process of normalizing relations. The issue of resuming trade can be discussed by the special representatives of Turkey and Armenia in the course of a new, already the fifth in a row round of negotiations.
Meanwhile, according to Manaseryan, it is unavoidably obvious that open roads are always much more preferable than a blockade. "But it is necessary to take into account the fact that Turkey itself closed the borders with Armenia, and now Ankara, rather than Yerevan, should be the initiator of their unblocking. We should not focus on political diplomacy, considering the agreement reached as a serious achievement, but to pay attention to the fact that against the background of the blocking of the Berdzor (Lachin) corridor by Azerbaijan, an air corridor is opening between Turkey and Armenia."
According to the economist, against the backdrop of the ongoing developments, the question arises o as to which of the following is of primary importance: the humanitarian catastrophe in Artsakh or the benefits that individual entrepreneurs and not even the Armenian economy, can receive?
At the same time, Manaseryan added that Armenia's weak economy will not be able to withstand the expansion of Turkish goods. It is unavoidably obvious, he continued, that Turkish goods are competitive not only for the Armenian market, but also for any country in the region. "Yes, the entire civilized world requires free competition, including open communications. But in the case of Armenia, one simple question needs to be answered: those officials who receive high salaries and bonuses, have they done research on the possible benefits or losses from direct trade with Turkey? And if such studies have been carried out, does the country's public have the right to get acquainted with their results?", Manaserian asked.
At the same time, it should be taken into account that Armenia does not have its own cargo air transport, which means that it will either have to rent them or use Turkish aircrafts, which it will most likely do. And according to the expert, this will lead to an increase in the country's dependence on the conditions of Turkish carriers. <We will face a very serious discriminatory policy. Deliveries of rather large consignments of Turkish goods to the Armenian market can lead to the collapse of domestic production," Manaseryan said.
It should be noted that there are no data on trade and economic relations between Armenia and Turkey in the reports of the RA Statistical Committee; however, they are presented in the information of the Customs Committee. According to these statistics, in the first half of 2022, the export of Armenian goods to Turkey has increased several times - from $106,000 to $20.3 million. Imports from Turkey to Armenia during this period increased 3.4-fold- to $97.8 million. Meanwhile, according to independent experts, these data refer to direct trade, but they do not take into account indirect trade. According to estimates, the y-o-y trade turnover between the countries reaches $250 million. This is also evidenced by the counters of Armenian stores, where the products of Turkish producers are presented in full assortment.
