ArmInfo. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict had a positive impact on Armenia. Tatul Manaseryan, Doctor of Economics, professor, head of the "Alternative" Research Center, a member of the Eurasian Expert Club, stated this on February 15 at a press conference.
According to him, the flow of 200-300 thousand immigrants, which is 10% of the entire population of Armenia, could not but affect the growth of the information technology, trade, and various consumer sectors. As a result, as the economist noted, last year was closed with a 14.2% increase in economic activity. In addition, Manaseryan continued, the growth of economic activity was also influenced by such factors as the growth of consumer prices, which should not be confused with inflation, since we are talking about 500 items of goods, as well as the appreciation of the national currency. At the same time, as Manaseryan emphasized, in December last year, compared with November, the growth of the country's economic activity amounted to 21.5%, which is also a very serious indicator.
Pointing out that growth in the agricultural sector was 0.4% alone, the economist noted that the volume of food products from Armenia to the EAEU countries increased significantly. "All this shows that the EAEU format gives the country such opportunities that no other format gives. I would especially like to note that finished products are exported>, Manseryan said. Speaking about the prospects for the development of the economy in 2023, the economist, pointing to external factors, stressed the importance of being ready for possible changes in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. "In the end, peace will come, and in this context, the question arises whether Armenia will be able to create favorable conditions for immigrants, to keep them, which will allow maintaining the existing development trends," Manaseryan emphasized, adding that everything will depend on what economic and social policy the state will implement. The economist also noted a significant increase in investments, the volume of which, according to the Eurasian Expert Club, exceeded $4 billion from Russia alone. And here it is very important to be able to correctly integrate these funds into various sectors of the country's economy, especially against the backdrop of underperformance of the state budget expenditures. With the targeted and competent use of public funds, the growth of the Armenian economy in 2023 will be adequate.
Manaseryan, referring to the forecasts of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, noted that the growth of Armenia's GDP in 2023 may exceed 11%, despite the forecast of the Fitch international rating agency, which projected the growth of the country's economy in the range of 6.4%. But even this indicator, according to the economist, could be considered quite high .
