ArmInfo.The growth of the Armenian economy in 2023 will be 6.5%, followed by a slowdown in 2024 to 5.5%, depending on the factors of internal and external demand. This is stated in the Asian Development Outlook of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), on the economies of the Asia- Pacific region. In particular, the report notes: "Despite headwinds, the economy grew strongly in 2022 on rapid expansion in consumption and services reflecting an influx of people and capital from the Russian Federation. Fiscal and current account deficits narrowed, but inflation accelerated. Growth is expected to moderate in 2023 and 2024 as stimulus from inflows of capital, people, and firms from the Russian Federation wanes. Inflation is expected to moderate, and the current account deficit to widen slightly. Strengthening education is critical for inclusive and sustainable growth."
According to the source, the inflation in Armenia will be 7% in 2023, with a decrease up to 6.2% in 2024.
It should be noted that international financial organizations, as well as the Central Bank of Armenia, forecast a strong slowdown in the growth of the Armenian economy. In particular, the Central Bank projects a slowdown in GDP growth to 5.8%, the International Monetary Fund - up to 4.5%, the World Bank - up to 4.1%, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development - up to 4%.
At the same time, the expectations of rating agencies regarding the growth of Armenia's GDP for 2023 are very different. Fitch forecasts a less severe slowdown - up to 6.1%, while S&P expects an average growth of 4.3% per year over the next few years. The Asian Development Bank has been cooperating with Armenia since 2005. As of 2022, the Bank provided Armenia with 37 loans, grants, as well as technical assistance in the amount of about $1.6 billion, which were directed to the development of transport, financial, energy, water, infrastructure, etc. In 2022, Armenia recorded economic growth at the level of12.6%.
