ArmInfo.The United States and the UAE continue to multiply the volume of foreign trade, improving their positions in Armenia's TOP-5 trade partner countries. Moreover, in the direction of the United States, imports are growing at a significant pace, and in the direction of the UAE, exports continue to grow sharply.
This is evidenced by the data of the RA Statistical Committee, according to which Russia, China, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, Iran are in the TOP-5 in terms of foreign trade volumes with Armenia, in particular, Russia and China continue to be in the top five in terms of exports and imports, and among the above mentioned three countries, the UAE is in the top five in terms of export volume, and the USA and Iran are in the top five in terms of import volume.
Leadership in terms of foreign trade turnover in general, and in terms of exports and imports in particular, continues to be held by Russia. In particular, the foreign trade turnover between Russia and Armenia in January-February 2023 amounted to $900.7 million, with an acceleration in y-o-y growth from 61.4% to 89%, due to a surge in exports amid a strong slowdown in import growth. Thus, the volume of exports of goods from Armenia to Russia increased 3.4-fold year-on-year, while a more restrained 43.1% growth was observed in the same period of 2022. At the same time, the upward pace of imports of goods from Russia to Armenia slowed down sharply - from 71.2% to 19.4%. Moreover, such a sharp change in the y-o-y dynamics of both exports and imports is explained by the consequences of the unprecedented scale of anti- Russian sanctions applied by the collective West. As a result, the volumes of exports and imports towards Russia amounted to $509.9 million and $390.8 million, respectively, in January-February 2023. Russia's share in Armenia's foreign trade turnover increased from 33.5% to 35.6% year-on-year, against the background of a significant increase in the share of exports 29.5% to 51.3% with a decline in the share in imports from 35.7% to 25.5%.
China continues to occupy the 2nd place in the volume of foreign trade turnover with Armenia, , which previously occupied this place both in terms of export and import, and now only in terms of imports, while in terms of export volume, it now ranks only 4th behind the United Arab Emirates and the Netherlands.
Thus, the volume of foreign trade turnover between Armenia and China in January-February 2023 amounted to $266.5 million, with a slowdown in y-o-y growth from 48.3% to 28.9%. In particular, the volume of exports of Armenian goods to China slightly accelerated in growth from 7.2% to 10%, amounting to $64.3 million (4th place), while the volume of imports slowed down in growth more noticeably - from 74.8% to 36.4%. %, amounting to $202.2 million (2nd place). The share of China in the foreign trade turnover of Armenia decreased from 14.5% to 10.5% year-on-year, against the background of a significant decline in the share in exports from 11.5% to 6.5%, with a slight decrease in the share in imports from 16.2% to 13.2%.
The United Arab Emirates rose to the 3rd place in terms of foreign trade turnover with Armenia, and it has risen to the 2nd place in terms of exports. In particular, the volume of foreign trade turnover between Armenia and the UAE in January-February 2023 amounted to $168.4 million, from 0.5% decline to 10.6% y-o-y growth dynamics, thanks to a multifold increase in exports with a restrained slowdown in import growth. Thus, the volume of exports of Armenian goods to the UAE changed its y-o-y dynamics from a 6.2% decline to a 16.5-fold increase, amounting to $162.2 million (2nd place), while the volume of imports slowed down in growth from 10.5% to 3.3%, amounting to $6.2 million. The share of the UAE in the foreign trade turnover of Armenia increased from 1.1% to 6.7.2% y-o-y, due to an increase in the share in exports from 1.9% to 16.3% with a decrease in imports from 0.7% to 0.4%.
The USA ranks 4th in the volume of foreign trade with Armenia, and it has risen to the 3rd place in the volume of imports. Thus, the volume of foreign trade turnover between Armenia and the United States in January-February 2023 exceeded $113.4 million, with a noticeable acceleration in y-o-y growth from 39.1% to 3-fold due to the continued growth of imports by several times, with an accelerating decline in exports. In particular, the volume of exports of Armenian goods to the United States accelerated the y-o-y decline from 17.5% to 50.3%, amounting to $6.3 million, while the volume of imports accelerated growth rates from 2.1-fold to 4.3-fold, exceeding $107.1 million (3rd place). This increased the share of the United States in Armenia's foreign trade turnover in y-o-y terms from 2.6% to 4.5%, due to an increase in the share in imports from 2.7% to 7% while reducing the share in exports from 2.5% to 0.6 %.
Iran remained in the top five in terms of foreign trade turnover with Armenia, but dropped from 3rd place to 5th place, with a similar change of positions in imports, which was due to a sharp slowdown in export growth and an equally noticeable slowdown in the upward pace of imports.
Thus, the volume of foreign trade turnover between Armenia and Iran in January-February 2023 exceeded $104.7 million, with a noticeable acceleration in y-o-ygrowth from 55.6% to 15.5%. In particular, the volume of exports of Armenian goods to Iran amounted to $19.2 million with a slowdown in y-o-y growth from 2.4-fold to 8.7%, and imports of goods from Iran - $85.5 million (5th place) with a slowdown in y-o-y growth from 43% to 17.1. As a result, the share of Iran in the foreign trade turnover of Armenia decreased over the reporting year from 6.4% to 4.1%, and the decline in the share was observed both in imports from 8% to 5.6%, and in exports from 3.5% to 1.9%.
Russia holds the lead both in terms of exports and imports. The next four positions are occupied by: in terms of exports - the United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands ($67.8 million), China and Iraq ($34 million). In terms of imports: China, the USA, Germany ($88.2 million) and Iran. Moreover, a 2.3-fold increase in imports in the direction of the Netherlands, was accompanied by a slowdown in export growth to 62.5% and there was a decline in exports by 1.3% in the direction of Iraq, with import nulling, and imports increased 2.2-fold in the direction of Germany, with a decline in exports by 0.6%.
Among the top five countries in terms of foreign trade with Armenia, the balance of three countries remains at a negative level, Russia has entered a positive balance, and the UAE, as before, has a positive balance. Thus, the negative balance of Armenia's foreign trade with China increased by 53.6% to $137.9 million, with the United States it increased 8.2-fold to $100.8 million, with Iran - increased by 20% to $66.3 million, and the positive balance of the UAE increased 41-fold - up to $156 million. The balance of foreign trade between Armenia and Russia changed from a negative level of $178.1 million to a positive level of $119.1 million.
In total, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-February 2023 exceeded $2.5 billion, with an increase of 77.7% (from 52.4% a year earlier). In particular, an increase in volumes was observed both in terms of exports - by 96.4% to $994.4 million, and in imports - by 67.4% to $1.5 billion, which was observed at a more restrained pace in the same period of 2022 - exports by 40.1 % and imports by 60.2%.
The foreign trade turnover of Armenia with the EAEU countries in January-February 2023 amounted to $934.5 million, with growth accelerating to 89.7% (from 62.3% in 2022), against the backdrop of a significant increase in exports - 3.4-fold (from 42.7% in 2022) - up to $531.1 million, with a slowdown in import growth to 19.3% (from 73% in 2022) - up to $403.4 million. And Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the EU countries in January-February 2023 accelerated growth from 37.6% to 51.6%, reaching $398.3 million, due to a sharp acceleration in import growth from 35.1% to 82.1%, while export growth slowed down from 41.3% to 7.8%, the volumes of which amounted to $282.2 million and $116.1 million, respectively. As a result, the negative balance of Armenia's foreign trade in January-February 2023, having slowed down in growth from 2-fold to 31.6%, amounted to $540.9 million., the negative balance with the EU countries increased 3.5-fold - up to $166.2 million, while a year earlier, a negative balance was recorded in both directions with an increase 2.1-fold in the EAEU and by 22.3% in the EU.
It should be noted that the Central Bank of Armenia, in its March forecast report for 2023, expects a sharp slowdown in the growth of exports and imports to 14.3-14.6% (from actual 77.7-63.5% in 2022), followed by a slowdown in 2024 to 3.4-1.7%. The Central Bank believes that in 2023, the export and import of goods and services, after an increase in 2022, will somewhat stabilize at an upward pace. From the point of view of the export of services, the expectations of the Central Bank are inclined to the fact that in the short term the influx of a large number of international visitors will continue (we are talking about resettlers moving to Armenia, mainly from the Russian Federation, moving their capital and business - ed. note). According to the Central Bank, at the same time, high growth in exports of IT services will also continue. The Central Bank in the same forecast report projects a slowdown in GDP growth in 2023 to 5.8% (from actual 12.6% in 2022), followed by a slowdown in 2024 to 5.2%.
