ArmInfo.How the market lived in 2015, what challenges it faced and what factors influenced it, Konstantin Tserazov, an independent expert, economist, ex-deputy head of global markets at Troika Dialog, told in our interview.
The year was marked by the weakening of the ruble and the decline in commodity prices. The MICEX index rose by 26%, while the RTS dollar index lost 4.7%. Inflation remained at 12.9%, while GDP fell by 3.2%. The downside was the decline in oil prices, at the end of the year the price of Brent oil fell by 40%, below $40 per barrel. The decline in commodity prices, in particular, was due to the cooling of the Chinese economy, notes Konstantin Tserazov.
Despite the challenges, the Russian economy has avoided collapse, and the banking system has stood the test of strength, and capital outflows have stopped. At the end of the year, the US Federal Reserve raised the rate by 0.25%, thus initiating monetary tightening. Although the regulator made it clear that there would be no sharp rate hikes, the era of cheap money is over, Konstantin Tserazov explained.
Photo:Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: “I believe that our market has already gone through the most difficult times, and in 2016 there is reason to expect a recovery.”
The beneficiaries of the market in 2015 were the exporting companies Uralkali, PhosAgro and Acron, due to the weak ruble the chemical and petrochemical sector added more than 70%. The financial and oil and gas sectors performed well, up 52% and 26%, respectively. The outsiders of the year were metallurgists - this sector went negative by 7%.
“I believe that our market has already gone through the most difficult times, and in 2016 there is reason to expect a recovery. Of course, geopolitical risks will still dominate the market, but the domestic economy has proven that it can respond to the most unpleasant challenges,” predicts Konstantin Tserazov.
As ideas for a portfolio for 2016, the expert advises investors to pay attention to the shares of companies in the electricity sector - FGC UES, Mosenergo and Inter RAO. Among financial sector companies, Sberbank remains the undisputed favorite. The import substitution policy has had a positive impact on the agricultural sector, and there is every reason to believe that this trend will continue in 2016. In this regard, economist Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov advises investors to take a closer look at the shares of Rusagro and Cherkizovo Group.
