ArmInfo.In Armenia, the growth of economic activity in H1 2023 slowed down to 11.4% per annum (from 11.8% in H1 2022), while significantly exceeding the pre-Covid upward pace of 6.5% in H1 2019.
This is starting to affect export and import rates. In June of this year by June 2022, the growth of economic activity slowed down more - to 6.8% (from 18.5% a year earlier, against 3.4% growth in 2019), while in June 2023 alone moderately accelerating growth to 9.9% from 7.4% in May (against a more visible acceleration of growth in June 2022 from 6.1% to 17%, and a slight slowdown from 8.4% to 8.2% in June 2019). This is evidenced by the final data of the RA Statistical Committee.
The growth of economic activity in H1 2023 was largely determined by the trade sector - by 23.6%, to a slightly lesser extent by the construction sector - by 17% and the service sector - by 16.8%, in parallel with which there was a slowdown in the growth of the industrial sector to 1% and reaching a 2% growth in the agricultural sector, and the energy complex moved down from double-digit growth to a 2.7% decline. A year earlier, in H1 2022, all these areas, with the exception of the agricultural sector, which was in a 5.5% decline, showed growth: the service sector - by 26.9%, the energy complex - by 14.8%, the construction sector - by 12.7%, trade sector - by 10.7%, industrial sector - by 5.8%.
The price index of industrial products in H1 2023 compared to the same period in 2022 decreased by 1%, in June 2023 compared to June 2022 it increased by 2.2%, and on a monthly term, it registered a 3% increase in June from the 3.5% decline in May. A year earlier, in similar periods, multidirectional dynamics were also recorded: the price index of industrial products in January-June 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 increased by 7.8%, in June 2022 compared to June 2021-decreased by 1.2%, and in June 2022 alone they lingered in the decline with a slowdown to 2.9% from 3.1% in May.
On a monthly term (for June 2023), the construction sector gave a decisive impetus to the growth of economic activity, accelerating the pace to 20.1% from 19.7% in May, thereby maintaining last year's June pace, but then there was an imperceptible slowdown from 21% to 20.1%. Then, the following sectors are followed by growth rates: the energy complex f - 8.3% (with an improvement from May's 5.1% decline), the trade sector - 5.5% (against the May 9.6% growth), the industrial sector - 2.8% (against the May 9.9% growth) and the services sector - 0.7% (with an improvement from May's 1.3% decline). As a comparison, we note that in June 2022, the industrial sector showed a double-digit 17.1% growth, trade - 12.8% growth, the service sector - 8% growth, and the energy complex - 6.4% growth, which, in addition to the latter, in other areas indicates the current slowdown in the upward pace.
On y-o-y terms(June 2023 to June 2022), an increase in economic activity was observed in all sectors, with the exception of the industrial sector and the energy complex, which were in decline - by 7.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Thus, the turnover of the trade sector increased by 20.3%, the volume of the construction sector - by 18.1%, the service sector - by 4%. Moreover, of the listed sectors, only the trade and construction sector provided some growth acceleration, while the service sector largely stagnated, and the manufacturing and energy complex turned from double-digit growth to a full decline. For clarity, it is worth noting that a year earlier, in June 2022 by June 2021, double-digit growth was observed in all industries: the service sector - 35.5%, the energy complex - 25.4%, the industrial sector - 19%, the trade sector - 18.2%, construction sector - 16.2%.
According to statistical data in H1 2023, the leadership in absolute terms is held by the trading sector with a volume of 2.3 trillion drams ($5.9 billion). The services sector recovered to the second place - 1.4 trillion drams ($3.7 billion), displacing the industrial sector to the third place - 1.2 trillion drams ($3 billion). The fourth place is traditionally occupied by agriculture - 278.6 billion drams ($714.7 million), and the fifth place is occupied by the construction sector - 174.2 billion drams ($446.8 million). The volume of electricity generation in H1 2023 amounted to 4270.1 million kWh, of which - 639.8 million kWh in June alone.
In the consumer market of Armenia, inflation slowed down in H1 2023 to 4.2%, in June alone deflationary 1.4% was recorded, and compared to June 2022, deflation was 0.5%, while last year in the considered periods, relatively high inflation was recorded: in H1 2022 - at the level of 8.1%, - at the level of 0.3% in June alone and compared to June 2021 - it reached double-digit 10.3%.
Against this background, Armenia's foreign trade turnover continues to demonstrate high growth rates, increasing sharply by 72.9% per annum in H1 2023, reaching 3.5 trillion drams ($8.9 billion). In its terms, equally high growth was observed both in imports and in exports. In particular, the volume of exports increased in y-o-y terms by 72.8% to 1.3 trillion drams ($3.3 billion), and imports - by 73% to 2.2 trillion drams ($5.6 billion). In June 2023 alone, foreign trade turnover decreased by 7.9% due to a decrease in both: exports by 13.1% and imports by 4.8%, while in May this year, these figures were on the rise - by 7.4%, 9% and 6.4% respectively. In June 2023, compared to June 2022, the growth of foreign trade turnover slowed down to 21%, mainly supported by the growth of imports by 33.8% than exports by 2.5%, while a year earlier (in June 2022 compared to June 2021) these indicators showed a high growth. A year earlier, in January-June 2022, foreign trade turnover increased by 44% per annum due to the growth of exports by 36.3% and imports by 48.7%, and the June growth of foreign trade turnover by 20.2% was provoked by the upward dynamics of exports by 38.2% with an increase in imports by 10.4%, compared to June 2021, the 71% increase in foreign trade turnover is mainly caused by the 73.1% increase in imports and a little less by the 68.1% increase in exports.
It should be noted that the average settlement rate of the dram in June 2022 was 386.67 AMD/$1, and in January-June 2022 - 389.79 AMD/$1, against 422.69 AMD/$1 in June 2022 and 468.24 AMD/$1 in January-June 2022 -
