ArmInfo.An unexpectedly successful 2019 surprised the rapid growth of Russian indices and the influx of private investors. Tserazov Konstantin Vladimirovich (Konstantin Tserazov), an independent expert, economist, ex-deputy head of global markets at Troika Dialog, told us what the year was remembered for and what caused the rally.
Contrary to skeptical forecasts, 2019 pleasantly surprised investors - the Moscow Exchange index added 28.6%, and the RTS index soared by 45% against the backdrop of the strengthening ruble, the expert says. According to Konstantin Tserazov, the main factor that ensured the growth of the market was the easing of geopolitical tensions and the threat of tougher sanctions, as well as the payment of record dividends by a number of large companies and a favorable situation on the commodity markets.
Tserazov Konstantin Vladimirovich: “According to the results of 2019, the number of private investors on the Moscow Exchange almost doubled, reaching 3.86 million people - this growth is associated with a decrease in the Bank of Russia rate from 7.75% to 6.25%.”
According to analysts at Otkritie Bank, the ruble capitalization of the Russian market grew from 9.8 trillion rubles to 11.8 trillion rubles, and the ruble strengthened against the dollar by 10.7%.
An important support was the growth of oil prices. According to analysts of Otkrytiye FC Bank, a barrel of Brent oil has risen in price by almost 27% over the year against the backdrop of production cuts by OPEC+ countries, from $54 to $68. At the end of 2019, the number of private investors on the Moscow Exchange almost doubled, reaching 3.86 million people - this growth is associated with a decrease in the Bank of Russia rate from 7.75% to 6.25%. As a result, deposit rates have decreased, which means that the attractiveness of the stock market has increased, explained Konstantin Tserazov.
At the end of the year, all sectors showed positive dynamics, the largest growth - at the level of 25-30% - was demonstrated by the oil and gas sector, as well as the telecommunications, electricity and financial sectors, says Konstantin Tserazov, referring to data from a study by analysts from FC Otkritie Bank.
There are enough reasons for optimism for 2020, the expert is sure. The Russian market, despite its impressive performance, is still underestimated and remains more attractive than its global peers. “I believe that if oil prices remain above $60 per barrel, in 2020 the market has every chance to grow by 20-25%,” concludes Konstantin Tserazov.