ArmInfo.Armenia has every opportunity to reach 9% economic growth by the end of the year, but I will not rule out that if the situation is favorable for the country, growth may reach 11-12%. A similar forecast was voiced by Tatul Manaseryan, Doctor of Economics, professor, head of the "Alternative" Research Center, a member of the Eurasian Expert Club.
He compared his forecasts with the assessments of international agencies, which, according to Manaseryan, without exaggeration, are political in nature. In particular, he recalled that Fitch forecasts economic growth for Armenia at 6.1%, Moody's - 7%, the World Bank - 4.4%, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development - 5%, the International Monetary Fund - 5.5% . The economist noted that the latter are very cautious in their estimates.
In addition, he considers it unprofessional to make forecasts on the Armenian economy, guided by the situation in the Russian Federation, only because the latter is the main trade and strategic partner of Armenia.
"And life proves that Armenia has its own peculiarities of the economy, does not depend on hydrocarbons, like Russia, Armenia's GDP is more diversified than the GDP of Russian Federation, not at the level we would like, but, nevertheless," said Professor Manaseryan, at the same time, he does not deny that the sanctions against the Russian Federation indirectly affect Armenia.
The economist determined his estimates by a number of indicators, including foreign trade turnover, which grew by 72.9% in the first half of the year, which, according to him, is an unprecedented indicator, and is associated with re-export, with an increase in tax revenues and state duties - by 16.4 % up to 1.2 trillion drams, an increase in the country rating of Armenia by Fitch, a decrease in the refinancing rate by the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia. The latter factor, according to the economist, suggests that the Regulator is signaling to businesses that they can use the available credit funds to invest and develop the economy.
It should be noted that the draft budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2023 provides for growth at the level of 7%.
