ArmInfo. In 2023, Armenian economic growth is projected at 7.2%, and next year it will be 5.6%. Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia Martin Galstyan stated on October 31 during a press conference.
"Our forecast is determined primarily by the progress of capital expenditures and the extent to which partners from the private sector, seeing capital investments being made by the government, will also be proactive in their programs and make new investments," he explained.
Mr. Galstyan noted that the Central Bank is more conservative in its forecasts than the government. "According to our estimates, economic growth in 2024 will be 5.6% and this is a good indicator," he said. Hayk Avetisyan, head of the monetary policy department of the Central Bank, in his turn added that the composition of the growth of the Armenian economy will not undergo significant changes. The main drivers of growth will remain the services sector and According to him, positive trends will be observed in the industry. Avetisyan noted that the excess demand that formed in 2022-2023, will gradually be adjusted and will be in tune with the potential of the economy and growth rates.
He also noted that if capital expenditures are properly implemented, the economic growth forecast, or rather the government's target of 7%, is realistic, which increases the likelihood of an improvement in the Central Bank's assessment.
The draft budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2024 envisages 7% economic growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecats Armenia's GDP growth by 5% in 2024, the World Bank (WB) expects 4.8% economic growth in Armenia in 2024, and the EBRD forecasts Armenia's GDP growth by 4.5% in 2024.
According to statistical data, the growth of economic activity in Armenia in Jan-Sept 2023 slowed to 9.7% per annum (from last year's 14.1%).
