ArmInfo. The state budget deficit of Armenia in 2024 will amount to 341.1 billion drams (about $880 million, the estimated US dollar exchange rate is 385.9 dr. per $1) or 3.2% of GDP, against 236.8 billion drams or 2.5% of GDP expected by end of this year and 179.5 billion or 2.1%, actual for 2022.
As a result, the government debt/GDP ratio at the end of next year will be 48.4%. Maintaining the debt at this level will allow maintaining the positive trends in the rating of the RA government, creating an additional "reserve of stability" to withstand possible future risks, and also having a manageable level of interest payments on the debt.
According to the forecasts underlying the budget, in 2024, in conditions of ensuring 7% GDP growth (and in the presence of favorable external conditions - all 9%), as well as improving the tax-to-GDP ratio by 0.75 percentage points.., tax revenues of the state treasury (tax revenues and state duties) will amount to 2 trillion 566 billion 361 million drams (24.4% of GDP), or 342 billion drams (15.4%) more than the adjusted figure for 2023 (23.7% of GDP).
In general, state treasury revenues will amount to 2 trillion 676 billion drams or 25.5% of GDP, against those expected by the end of this year. 2 trillion 365 billion drams or 25.1% of GDP (2 trillion 365 billion drams or 24.3% of GDP for 2022). State treasury expenditures in 2024, compared with the adjusted figure for this year. will increase by 15.9% or approximately 415 billion drams - up to 3 trillion 017 billion 437 million drams or 28.7% of GDP (426.5 billion drams more than the approved figure for this year or 27.6% of GDP).
The deficit of 341.1 billion drams will be financed both from internal resources - in the amount of 220.3 billion drams, and from external sources - 120.8 billion drams.
"In 2024, the bulk of internal sources of financing the deficit will be formed from proceeds from the placement of government securities, funds from the stabilization deposit account, as well as net income from budget loans provided to business entities. There are still significant funds allocated to finance the state budget deficit through loans from international organizations and foreign countries. According to forecasts, during the program period, the structure of external assistance will be dominated by official budget support grants and loans to finance targeted programs (95.1%)," reads the 2024 budget message.
The total volume of net borrowings to be raised from domestic sources to finance the deficit in 2024 will be about 350.8 billion drams, while it is expected that the attraction of borrowed funds will be fully secured through the issuance of government securities. Net income from financial assets in 2024 is planned to be about 130.5 billion drams.
The planned total amount of net borrowings from external sources will be 129 billion drams. These are loans to be provided to the Republic of Armenia in 2024 from international organizations and foreign countries (some of which have a clear programmatic focus), loans already received by the specified date in accordance with the conditions provided for in loan agreements, repayment amounts and proceeds from the placement of foreign currency government bonds. Net income from financial assets in 2024 is planned to be about 8.2 billion drams.
According to the document, the ratio of public debt to GDP at the end of 2024 will be 50.7%, against those expected by the end of this year. 49.4% and actual 49.3% for 2022. The government's debt will be 48.4%, instead of the 47% expected for 2023 and the actual one for last year - 46.7%. In USD terms, the government's debt by the end of 2024 will reach $11 billion 891 million, against the expected $10 billion 900 million for the current year and $10 billion 086 million for 2022. Domestic debt is planned to increase to 44.3%, against 43.2% expected by the end of 2023 and actual for 2022 - 41.6%. Dram debt in the structure of government debt will reach 44.4%, instead of what was expected for this year. 42.7% and actual for last year - 37.9%. In 2024, 805.2 billion drams will be required to service and repay the government's debt, of which debt repayments will amount to 483 billion drams, and 322.2 billion drams for interest payments or 3.1% of GDP (2.9% per ton). 2.3% - for 2022).
