Wednesday, December 27 2023 19:36

ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia forecasts a decline in export and import volumes by 9.5% and 7.3% for 2024, after a sharp slowdown in growth in 2023 to 22.1- 30% (from 77.7-63.5% in 2022) . But according to the Central Bank's forecast, both exports and imports will grow by 2.6% and 3.2% in 2025. This is noted in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Program (MPP) for Q4 2023, published at the end of December, where GDP growth expectations for 2023 indicate a less noticeable slowdown in rates to 8.3% (from 12.6% in 2022) and further to 6.1% in 2024 and 5.7% in 2025.

According to the Central Bank's forecast, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP will reach 3.1% in 2023 (from 0.8% in 2022), with a further deepening to 3.4% and 3.6% in 2024 and 2025. Over the medium term, a gradual adjustment to strong external demand and a recovery in domestic demand will impact the current account deficit to GDP ratio by increasing to an estimated range of 4-6%.

According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia exceeded 14.1 billion dollars in 2022, sharply accelerating the y-o-y growth from 17.7% to 68.6%.  This is due to the equal acceleration of the growth rates of both exports and imports, from 19.1% to 77.7% and from 16.9% to 63.5%,, the volume of which reached $5.4 billion and $8.8 billion, respectively.

According to statistical data, Russia continues to lead the TOP-5 in terms of foreign trade turnover with Armenia, China holds the second place, the UAE ranks third, the United States ranks fourth, Iran has moved up to the fifth place, and Germany and Italy are very close to the TOP-5, occupying the 6th and 7th places respectively. Russia continues to hold the leadership in foreign trade turnover in general, and in exports and imports in particular,  and the next four places in terms of exports were occupied b the UAE, China, Switzerland and Iraq, and in terms of imports - China, Iran, Germany and the USA.

GDP growth in 2022 was high - 12.6% (versus 5.8% in 2021), and this is the highest rate in the last 15 years, slightly lower than the historical maximum of 13.9% in 2005. The driver of such economic growth in 2022 was largely the service sector - 28.2%, followed by the trade sector at double-digit rates - 17%, the energy sector - 16.1% and the construction sector - 12.5%. The industrial sector also showed growth by 7.9%, and the agricultural sector managed to reach a positive modest 0.4%. Comparison with the rates of a year ago indicates an improvement in dynamics in all areas, since in 2021 the energy complex and the agricultural sector were in decline by 0.6-1.1%, and there was a modest increase of 7. 8%, 7.5%, 7.4% and 3.3%, respectively, in the services, trade, construction and industry sectors.