ArmInfo.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its forecast for Armenia's GDP for 2024 from the previous 5% to an updated 6% (versus actual 8.7% growth in 2023), with a slowdown to 5.2% in 2025. This is noted in the IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2024; Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergenc."
According to IMF expectations, inflation in Armenia will increase to 3.1% in 2024 (from 2% in 2023) and will further will reach to 3.7% in 2025, thereby approaching the target 4%. The unemployment rate in Armenia, according to the IMF forecast, will reach to 13% in 2024 (from 12.5% in 2023), and - to 13.5% in 2025. According to IMF expectations, Armenia's current account deficit will increase to 2.8%of GDP in 2024 (from 1.9% in 2023), and will continue to grow to 3.6% of GDP in 2025
Recently, in its April forecast, the World Bank also improved the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2024 from the previous 4.7% to an updated 5.5% (against the actual slowdown in growth in 2023 to 8.7% from 12.6% in 2022). The World Bank also improved its economic growth forecast for 2025 - from the previous 4.5% to an updated 4.9%. According to the World Bank's forecast, in the medium term, average inflation will rise to the targeted 4%. According to the World Bank's expectations, Armenia's current account deficit will worsen to 3.2% of GDP in 2024 (from 2.3% in 2023), but will remain manageable at 3.4-3.5% in the medium term.
The forecasts of international rating agencies for Armenia's GDP growth for 2024 are as follows: S&P Global Ratings expects the pace to slow down to 6.2%, and Fitch Ratings - to 6%. The Central Bank, with the transition to a new system for developing monetary policy (FPAS MARK II) from 2024, began to calculate the GDP forecast for several scenarios and indicate the expected growth not at one specific level, but in a range. In particular, according to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, GDP growth in 2024 will be in the range of 5.3-6.4%.
