ArmInfo. Most member countries continue to display robust growth: the aggregate GDP of the EDB's region of operations increased by 4.6% YoY in January -June 2024, after an increase of 3.9% in 2023.This is evidenced by the data of the Macroeconomic Review for 6 member states of the Bank, prepared by EDB analysts.
In January-June, the economic activity indicator in Armenia increased by 10.4% y/y due to the dynamic growth of output in the industrial sector, primarily the processing of precious metals," the review notes.
It is further noted that the Belarus's economy grew by 5% YoY during the same period, driven, among other things, by growth in industrial production and agriculture, while maintaining positive growth dynamics in most other sectors.
" Kazakhstan's economy is recovering from the consequences of spring floods, as evidenced by leading indicators. The GDP grew by 3% YoY in the first half of 2024, fueled by an increase in industrial production and the service sector.
The Kyrgyz Republic experienced a GDP growth rate surge to 8.7% YoY in January-July 2024, largely due to intensified investment activity. In Russia, industrial production remains the primary driver of economic growth. In the first half of 2024, the nation's GDP grew by 4.7% YoY; however, the signs of potential economic slowdown gradually become apparent.
In the first half of 2024, Tajikistan maintained a high GDP growth rate of 8.2% YoY, supported by strong domestic demand driven by both consumption and investment," the Bank's analysts emphasize.
At the same time, it is noted that investment activity continues to grow in most countries in the region.
"In Armenia, it is supported by a steady increase in public investment and housing construction. In Belarus and Russia, import substitution programmes are growing, driven, among other things, by public investment. Kazakhstan is building up its strategy for the development of mechanical engineering, planning to expand the programme to other sectors. Investment growth in Kyrgyzstan is largely driven by investment in energy, transport and extractive industries, while Tajikistan keeps actively investing in energy facility construction.
Inflation remains heterogeneous across the region: in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, inflation dropped below target levels. In Belarus, the growth in the cost of the basket of goods remains within the target corridor. That said, inflation in Russia and Kazakhstan continues to stay above target levels," the review continues.
The Macroeconomic Review states that the economic activity in the world's largest economies will not have a stimulating effect on the economy of the Bank's region of operations. GDP growth is expected to slow down in the United States, the European economy is recovering at a slow pace, and business activity in China still remains at a high level notwithstanding a certain decline in the second quarter of 2024. Amid growing concerns about economic activity in developed countries, central banks have started cutting interest rates or plan to do so in the near future. EDB's analysts do not rule out the risks of a slowdown in business activity in key global economies, and assess the potential consequences for the economies of the region through a risk scenario.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is a multilateral development bank that carries out investment activities in the Eurasian region. For over 18 years, the EDB has been promoting the strengthening and expansion of economic ties and the comprehensive development of its member countries. The EDB's authorized capital is USD 7 billion. The EDB's portfolio is primarily comprised of projects with an integration effect in the areas of transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, industry and mechanical engineering. In its activities, the Bank is guided by the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles.
