ArmInfo. Armenia's GDP in the first half of 2024 exceeded 4.2 trillion drams or $10.6 billion, showing a more noticeable slow down in annual growth at 7.3%. In comparison, during the same period in 2023, there was a slight decrease in double-digit growth from 18% to 16%. This is evidenced by the data from the RA Statistical Committee, published on August 20 alongside the presentation of GDP at market prices. The GDP experienced a negative trend in the first quarter, declining by 36.1%.
However, rebounded in the second quarter with a positive growth of 16%, which repeated the quarterly dynamics of 2023, where there was a 36.3% decline in the first quarter followed by 16.5% growth in the second quarter. The GDP deflator index for the first half of 2024 showed a minimal quarterly growth, with a slight acceleration from 100.6% in the first quarter to 100.8% in the second quarter. In comparison, during the same period in 2023 there was a noticeable slowdown in growth from 107.3% in the first quarter to 103.1% in the second quarter.
GDP per capita increased quarterly during the first half of this year, rising from 637,706, 000 drams ($1,582) in the first quarter to 750,873, 000 drams ($1,930) in the second quarter. This trend was also observed in 2023, from GDP per capita increasing from 600,,249, 000 drams ($1,529) in the first quarter to 716,830, 000 drams ($1,852) in the second quarter. The growth in per capita GDP is recorded against the background of an increase in Armenia's population by 112.3 thousand people over the year - to 3.058 million people as of July 1, 2024. In the same period of 2023, per capita GDP growth was observed despite a decrease in the population by 16.4 thousand people, from 2.962 million to 2.946 million people, according to updated data.
The slowdown in annual GDP growth in the first half of 2024 was largely caused by a significant decrease in the growth of the services sector, dropping from 16.8% to 4.4%. There was a minor slowdown in the trade sector, decreasing from 23.6% to 22.9% and the construction sector - from 17% to 15.7%. However, during the same period, the industrial sector experienced a significant increase in annual growth from 1% to 18.2%. The agricultural sector also saw a slight advancement, moving from 2% to 4%. The energy sector was able to improve its dynamics, transitioning from a 2.7% decline to 2.2% growth. At the same time, Armenia's foreign trade turnover showed a significant increase in annual growth, rising from 72.9% in the first half of 2023 to double that amount in the first half of 2024. This was mainly due to a two-fold increase in exports and an 86.5% rise in imports. This growth contrasted with the almost identical rates in export and import growth the previous year - 72.8% and 73%, respectively. It should be noted that the June forecasts of the IMF, WB and the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) predict a slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth in 2024 and 2025. Specifically, the IMF expects Armenia's GDP growth to slow down to 6% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025. The CBA also predicts a slowdown in GDP growth in 2024 to 6.8- 6.1% and in 2025 to 6.1-3.8%. The World Bank expects Armenia's GDP growth to slow to 5.5% in 2024 and to 4.9% in 2025. According to actual statistics, Armenia's GDP, accelerated in growth in 2021-2022 from 5.8% to a double-digit 12.6%, but slowed down to 8.3% in 2023, reaching 9.5 trillion drams ($24.2 billion) in absolute terms.
