Economic activity growth in Armenia slowed down to 8.7% in  January-September 2024 

ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity growth slowed down to 8.7% per annum in January-September 2024 (from 9.7% in the same period of 2023). Unlike last year, the industrial sector has become one of the growth drivers. According to preliminary data from the RA Statistical Committee, this is  accompanied by continued high growth rates of exports and imports.   Despite the fact that the preliminary statistical report does not  provide more detailed information, it is evident that the high growth  in industrial production no longer coming from the jewelry industry.  It previously showed several-fold growth, but now is experiencing a  double-digit decline, as seen in the data from previous months. 

In particular, the high growth of the industrial sector is now  primarily supported by the production of basic metals, coke, and  petroleum products. To a slightly lesser extent, it is also supported  by the production of electrical equipment, furniture, woodworking  industry, and metallurgy. Moreover, it is worth noting that the  production of coke and liquefied petroleum products has recently  shown the greatest growth albeit with minimal volume. Nevertheless,  the production of basic  metals remain as a leading sector in terms  of volume. It has now been surpassed by the food industry, which has  recently rebounded from a prolonged decline and regained its position  as the top sector in terms of production volume.

According to preliminary statistics, the growth of economic activity  in January-September 2024 was largely attributed to the trade sector  - with a slowdown in growth rates from 23.3% to 19.5%. The  construction sector also saw a decrease with a slowdown in annual  growth rates from 17% to 15.9%, while the industrial sector went from  a 0.6% decline to 12.6% growth. However, there was a significant  slowdown in growth in the services sector - from 13.4% to 5.9%. The  energy complex showed  improvement in its annual dynamics, moving  from a 2.8% decline to 1.2% growth. The agricultural sector  maintained its growth, almost matching the pace of the previous year  with a slight increase from 1.7% to 1.8%. 

According to statistical data from January to September 2024, the  trade sector leads in absolute value with a volume of over AMD 4.4  trillion ($11.2 billion). The service sector takes second place with  AMD 2.4 trillion ($6.2 billion), followed by the industrial sector -  AMD 2.1 trillion ($5.4 billion),  the agricultural sector - AMD 628.7  billion ($1.6 billion), and  the construction sector - AMD 406.4  billion ($1.03 billion).  The total volume of electricity generated  from January to September 2024 was 6422.5 million kWh, with 675.2  million kWh in September alone. It is worth noting that the gap  between the industrial and service sector volumes is decreasing, due  to the industrial sector experiencing double-digit growth, while the  service sector is experiencing a sharp slowdown. 

In September 2024, economic activity accelerated compared to  September 2023, increasing from last year's 5.6% to a reported 7%. In  September alone, growth slowed to 6.6% from August's 7.2% (against a  slowdown in growth in September 2023 from 6.2% to 3.7%). Moreover,  the industrial sector experienced a significant slowdown in growth  from 7.5% to 1.6% in September 2024, a reversal  from the same month  a year earlier, when growth shifted from 8.1% to a 0.6% decline.

In annual terms (September 2024 to September 2023), all sectors  showed an upward trend. In particular, the construction sector  experienced annual double-digit growth - 14.7%, the trade sector -  13.4% and the services sector - 11.6%, followed by the energy complex  - 7% and the industrial sector - 4.6%. A year earlier, from September  2023 to September 2022, the industrial sector and the energy complex  were in decline - 4.3% and 3.9%. In contrast, the trade sector grew  by 24.2% and the construction sector by 15.7% The services sector  also saw growth at 4.6% growth. 

Against this background, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in  January-September 2024 reached 9.4 trillion.  AMD ($23.7 billion),  with an acceleration of the already high annual growth rate to 73.5%  (from 47.2% in the same period of 2023). This is due to a more  pronounced acceleration of the high rates of annual growth of exports  - from 48.5% to 2.1 times, than imports, which increased from 46.4%  to 54.2%. The absolute value of imports amounted to AMD 4.2 trillion,  exports were AMD 5.2 trillion ($10.6 billion and $13.1 billion). 

In September 2024, foreign trade turnover accelerated its growth from  15.9% to 22.4% compared to September 2023. This increase was due to a  greater extent to the acceleration of export growth from 31.5% to  38.9% , while imports growth increased from 5.6% to 11.9%. In  September alone, exports reversed their growth trend from 15.6%  to a  13.1% decline. This decline was also observed in imports, which  shifted from a 1.7% growth to a 12.9% decline. As a result, the  overall dynamics of foreign trade turnover worsened from a 7.4%  growth to a 13% decline.

It should be noted that since 2023, the methodology for calculating  the volumes of generated electricity has changed in statistical  reports; in particular, the volumes of electricity generated by  autonomous producers are now being taken into account. Data for the  agricultural sector are only published in quarterly and annual  statistical reports. (The average calculated exchange rate of the  dram in January-September 2024 was AMD 393.34/$1).