ArmInfo. Russia has maintained its position as the leader in private money transfers to Armenia, while ceding the top spot in outflow to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia data for January-October 2024, there was a decrease in both the inflow and outflow of transfers to Russia - by 14% and 1% totaling $ 2.9 billion and $ 550.4 million respectively. On the other hand, transfers to he UAE saw significant growth , with an increase of 44% in inflow and 51.4% in outflow, reaching $ 92 million and $ 739.9 million. Despite a 17% decrease, the net flow of transfers from Russis remained at a positive level of $ 2.4 billion, while the net inflow from the UAE remained negative at $ 647.9 million, showing an increase of 53%. The share of non-commercial transactions in the inflow and outflow to Russia is small - 12% and 22%, respectively, mirroring the percentages for the UAE at 8.4% in the inflow and 1.5%. Following Russia, the TOP-5 countries in terms of inflow are the USA, Switzerland, the UAE and the UK, and in terms of outflow after the UAE, the Russian Federation, the USA, Switzerland and the UK were the top.
Much more remarkable is the annual dynamics of the inflow of transfers from Hong Kong to Armenia - a 6-fold increase to $33.2 million, along with a 41% decline in outflow in this direction to $24.2 million. This led to the net inflow of transfers from Hong Kong to Armenia shifting from a negative $35.1 million to a positive level of $9 million in a year, marking a growth of 2.3 times. Moreover, the share of non- commercial transactions in the inflow of transfers from Hong Kong is low at 2% (annual decline in volume by 22%), and is also minimal in the outflow at 4% (annual growth in volume by 57%). According to experts, such transaction dynamics in the direction of Hong Kong and the UAE can be explained by "gray deals" involving gold and diamonds, as these countries are major hubs for the re-export of precious metals and stones. Experts refer to customs data, according to which the lion's share of diamonds and gold imported from Russia are then exported to the UAE and Hong Kong. In the first half of this year, Russia accounted for 77% of diamond imports and 99.7% of gold imports, with the majority of these precious metals and stones being exported to the markets of the UAE (77% diamonds and 64% gold) and Hong Kong (17% diamonds and 25% gold). A similar trend was seen at the end of 2023, with 46.7% of diamonds and 99.2% of gold coming from Russia and being exported to the UAE (84.6% of diamonds and 71.4% of gold) and Hong Kong (2.7% of diamonds and 25.4% of gold).
In the direction of the USA, there was growth in both the inflow and outflow of transfers - by 4% and 28% reaching $564.6 million and $478.7 million respectively. This kept the net inflow in this direction positive at $85.9 million, despite a 50% decline. Towards Switzerland, there was a 6% decline in inflow to $102.3 million, accompanied by a 35% increase in outflow to $279.9 million, resulting in a negative net inflow by 81% to $177.6 million. Towards Great Britain, there was a 36% increase in inflow to $85.7 million, with a 57% decline in outflow to $119.5 million, reducing the negative net inflow by 84% to $33.8 million. In total, according to the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, the net inflow of private transfers to Armenia in January-October 2024 decreased by 28% year-on-year, amounting $1 billion. For non- commercial transfers, the decline in net inflow was even more significant, dropping by 39% to $465.1 million. The share of non-commercial transfers in the total net inflow decreased from 52% to 44% over the year. When broken down into inflow and outflow, the annual dynamics of transfers from all countries show a 6% decrease, and a 4% increase in outflow. As a result, the volume of inflow in January-October 2024 amounted to $4.5 billion (including $827.9 million of non-commercial nature).
Moreover, non-commercial transfers experienced a double-digit decline in the inflow line, dropping by 26.4%, while also showing a slight decrease in the outflow line (1%). As a result, Russia's share in the inflow decreased from 70% to 64% over the year, with a minor decrease in the outflow - from 17% to 16%. The UAE's share in the inflow remains small, increasing from 1% to 2%, while in the outflow it has rised from 15% to 21%. The US share in both the inflow and outflow has shifted from last year's identical 11% to the current 12% and 14%.
It should be noted that in 2023, transfers from all countries totaled $5.7 billion in inflows, and $4 billion in outflows, forming a net inflow of $1.7 billion. Growth has significantly slowed down, with the inflow increasing from 2.5 times to 9.7%, and the outflow - from 2.1 times to 55%, leading to a 36% decline in the net inflow dynamics from a previous 3-fold growth. Russia's share in the inflow remained at 69%, while decreasing in the outflow to 16%, and the US share decreased in both the inflow and outflow to 12%.
