ArmInfo. The growth rate of the Armenian economy in 2025 will be lower than the indicator planned by the country's government. Economist Aghasi Tavadyan said this in an interview with an ArmInfo correspondent.
According to him, there are currently opportunities for economic growth, but the presence of a number of risks calls such a development into question. Back in 2024, the RA government programmed 7% GDP growth, but during the year a downward trend in the forecast indicator began to be observed, which forced the government to revise its own data by the end of autumn, reducing GDP growth to 5.5%.
Thus, as Tavadyan noted, the government took into account the new risks that have emerged. First of all, we are talking about a significant reduction in foreign trade turnover. Meanwhile, it is the growth of trade turnover that is a clear indicator of the growth of the economy of any state. The 50% growth in trade turnover last year (in 2023, export volumes amounted to about $8 billion, in 2024 - $13 billion) was largely due to the re-export of gold and precious metals from Russia through Armenia to Hong Kong, continental China and the United Arab Emirates. In 2024, 63% of Armenia's total trade turnover was in this area. It was clear to everyone, Tavadyan continued, that in this case we were talking about a short-term phenomenon, when the bulk of re-export occurred in April - May 2024.
Currently, as the economist noted, there is a process of reducing the volume of re-export of goods. If we pay attention to the traditional group of goods that are exported from the country in traditional directions, we cannot help but notice the fact that exports to Russia decreased by 11%, and to Europe - by 14%. Without taking into account the factor of re-export of precious metals and gold, in December 2024 - January 2025, compared to the same period in 2023-2024, exports from Armenia decreased by half. These calculations show that this year the volume of exports will amount to no more than $ 9 billion, which will inevitably affect the GDP growth rates. And this, in turn, will lead to a reduction in tax collection and an increase in the country's public debt in 2025. Thus, we can conclude that in 2025 the GDP growth rate of Armenia will not exceed 5%.
Answering a question about another risk associated with some improvement in Russian-American relations and the possibility of lifting some sanctions against the Russian Federation, which could lead to the return of a number of Western-made goods to the Russian market, the economist noted that the introduction of sanctions against Moscow by Western countries at one time had the most beneficial effect on the economy of Armenia, which benefited from these sanctions more than any other country in the Eurasian Economic Union. Tavadyan recalled that the more than significant growth of the country's economy was mainly due to a significant increase in the export of Armenian goods to the Russian market. At the same time, there was also a reverse process associated with the outflow of Russian capital to Armenia, as well as human resources. This was especially noticeable in the banking sector and in the field of information technology. In 2022, Armenia's GDP growth was 12.6%, half of which was in the above-mentioned areas. In the banking sector of Armenia alone, there was an almost threefold increase that same year. It is clear to everyone, Tavadyan noted, that this was due to the outflow of capital from the Russian Federation. The same applies to the IT sector, growth of trade turnover, etc. Since 2022, when the capital market in the Russian Federation was somewhat limited, a large flow of financial resources was redirected from Russia to the EAEU countries, mainly to Armenia. "Against this background, the possible lifting of sanctions against Russia will lead to negative consequences for the Armenian economy, since Western countries will begin to return to the Russian market directly, and not bypassing it," the economist summed up.
According to the forecasts of the Eurasian Development Bank, in 2025 the GDP growth rate of Armenia will be 5.5%. The economic growth of Armenia in the state budget for 2025 is envisaged at 5.1%. The IMF and the World Bank predict a further slowdown in the GDP growth rate in 2025 - to 4.9% and 5%, respectively. The Central Bank predicts either an acceleration of the GDP growth rate to 7.1% or a slowdown to 4.8% for 2025, depending on the inflation trajectory.
