Armenia`s foreign trade with EAEU decreasing, while increasing with EU

ArmInfo. Armenia's foreign trade with the EAEU is declining, while with the EU it is gaining momentum. Specifically, the foreign trade turnover between Armenia and the EAEU  has shifted from an impressive 3-fold growth to a noticeable decline of 61.5% in annual dynamics, while between Armenia and the EU the dynamics show a growth of  4.8%  (compared to a 24.3% decline a year ago). As a result, the volume of Armenia's foreign trade with the EAEU in January-April 2025 amounted to $2.3 billion, and with the EU - $729.3 million, according to data from  the RA Statistical Committee. Among the EAEU countries, almost all (with the exception of the Russian Federation to a significant extent) reduced volumes,  while among the EU countries, the majority preferred to increase volumes. These countries include the Netherlands, Bulgaria, France, Romania, Austria, Spain, Slovakia, Finland, Poland, Greece, Hungary. This change in  annual dynamics led to a decrease in the share of the EAEU in the structure of Armenia's foreign trade from 44.8% to 36.6% (with the Russian Federation decreasing from 44.1% to 35.1%), while  the EU's share increased from 5.2% to 11.6%. The top five trading partners of Armenia are Russia, China, the UAE, Iran and Germany, with foreign trade volumes for January-April 2025 amounting to $2.2 billion, $765.6 million, $729.5 million, $222.7 million and $140 million, respectively. 

Out of  these countries, only Iran managed to pull out the recession with a growth of 9.9%, while the others experienced declines. Russia and the UAE  saw significant declines of 62.5-74.4% decline, and Chine went from a 61.1% growth to a 26.1% decline. Germany  to visibly slow down its decline from 35.8% to 5.4%.  Particularly, Russia experienced a sharp decline in imports by 73.3% to $1.3 billion, while exports slowed down their decline from 21.4% to 6.8% (at $891.4 million). China saw exports decline by 73.4% and imports decline by 12.1% to a 36.2% growth, with values of $156.8 million and  $608.8 million, respectively. Thee UAE had exports decline by 75.2% and  imports grow by 72.4% growth, with  values of $702.6 million and $26.9 million, respectively. Iran saw  import growth of 13.7%, and export decline of 8.6%, with values of $190.9 million and $31.7 million, respectively. Germany's exports grew by 69.8% and imports decline by 17.6%, with  values of  $35.2 million and $104.8 million, respectively.

In terms of exports, the TOP-5 countries include Russia, the UAE, China, Iraq ($100.8 million, with an increase of 93.7%) and Georgia ($50.6 million, with an increase of 11.1%). In terms of imports, the leading five are Russia, China, Iran, Italy ($110.97 million, with an increase of 4%) and Germany.

Note that Russia and the UAE that have stood out in the last two years with significant volumes of exports and imports through Armenia via transit operations involving precious metals and stones. However, the current sectoral breakdown of Armenia's foreign trade (for January-April 2025) already shows a significant decrease in the share of precious metals and stones, accounting for 19.2% of imports and 35.7% of exports (down from 60.1% and 75.2%, respectively, a year ago). This decline  is due to the settlement of the customs duty issues on jewelry within the EAEU since 2025, and the zeroing of  duties on the import of jewelry from the UAE by Russia.

Recall that according to customs data for the first half of 2024, the majority of the total volume of diamond and gold imports came from Russia - 77% and 99.7%, respectively, and the main exports of these precious metals and stones came from the UAE (77% diamonds and 64% gold) and Hong Kong (17% diamonds and 25% gold). A similar trend was seen  at the end of 2023, with 46.7% of diamonds and 99.2% of gold  coming from Russia, also being exported to the UAE (84.6% diamonds and 71.4% gold) and Hong Kong (2.7% diamonds and 25.4% gold). Armenia's total foreign trade turnover for January-April 2025 amounted to $6.3 billion, marking a 52.9% decrease  (compared to a 2.4-fold increase a year ago). 

Particularly,  both exports and imports saw a decline in dynamics, with  a 60.3-46.5% decline (from a 2.8- 2.1-fold increase a year ago), the volumes of which fell to $2.4 billion and $3.9 billion, respectively.  Armenia's negative foreign trade balance for January-April 2025 increased by 27.3% per annum - to $1.4 billion, of which the negative $375.6 million and $368.5 million are the balance with the EAEU and EU countries. It should be noted that the forecasts of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), the IMF and the WB regarding  exports and imports for 2025 differ greatly. According to the CBA's expectations (March forecast), after almost equal growth of exports and imports in 2024 by 35.6-31.4%, foreign trade turnover is expected to decrease in 2025: exports will decrease by 19.8-24% and imports by 19.7-22.8%. The IMF's April forecast also predicts a decline in both exports and imports for Armenia in 2025, but by a more modest 10.4%  and 5.4%, respectively. In contrast, the WB's earliest forecast   (November) predicted a significant slowdown in foreign trade growth for Armenia in 2025, with exports at 5.6% and imports at 7%.