ArmInfo. In Armenia's consumer market in June 2025, there was a recorded inflation of 3.9% compared to June 2024, (higher than the inflation rate of 0.8% a year ago).
This increase was driven by a rise in prices of food products and services. In the first half of 2025, inflation was at the level of 1.5% (compared to last year's deflation of 0.9% in the same period), which was also a result of the rise in prices of food products and services. According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, in June of this year, there was a deflation of 1.3% (compared to deflation of 0.9% a year earlier in the same month), provoked by a seasonal decrease in food prices by 3.1% with a 0.7% increase in services.
In Yerevan, consumer prices fell by 1.2% in June, against a 0.9% decline in June 2024. In the first half of this year, the increase in inflation was mainly provoked by a 2.2% increase in food prices and, to a lesser extent, a 1.9% increase in services, with a 0.8% decrease in non-food prices, while a year earlier in the first half of 2024, a 1.7% decrease in food prices was recorded, a more noticeable decrease in non-food prices by 2.4% and an increase in service tariffs by 0.9%. In the first half of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, inflation was recorded at 3.1%, against a deflationary 0.6% a year earlier. Moreover, food products rose in price by 5.2%, services increased in price by 2.9%, and non-food products fell in price by 0.7%, while a year earlier, food products fell in price by 3.3%, and non-food products and services rose in price by 0.1% and 2.8%, respectively. In June 2025 to June 2024, inflation of 3.9% resulted from an increase in prices for food products by 6.2% and services by 3.5%, with a decrease in prices for non-food products by 0.2%, while a year earlier in June 2024 to June 2023, lower inflation of 0.8% was recorded, provoked by an equal decrease in prices for food and non-food products by 0.2%, with an increase in tariffs for services by 2.7%.
In the food market, the prices for vegetables and fruits have increased year-on-year (June 2025 to June 2024) by 25% and 3.7%, respectively (compared to an increase in prices for vegetables by 7% and fruits by 6.3% the previous year). However, in June alone, there was a significant seasonal decrease in the price of vegetables by 23.6%, and a slight decrease in fruit prices by 1.2%, whereas a year ago (in June 2024) the seasonal decrease in the price of vegetables by 21.2% was accompanied by an increase in the price of fruits by 8%. The average weighted deflation in the food group of vegetables and fruits was 15.14% in June of this year. Since they make up 8.28% of the consumer basket, the impact on consumer prices was downward by 1.25 percentage points. Among food products, the prices of trout have also increased significantly year- on-year - by 21.8%, cocoa - 20.4%, fish and seafood - by 20%, sunflower oil - by 17.5%, chocolate - by 14.8%, coffee - by 14.3%, butter - by 14%, flour - by 7.1%, pasta - by 5.3%, ice cream - by 5.2%, lamb and pork - by 3.9-4.5%, bread - by 3.9%, while beef has increased more modestly - by 1.2%, margarine - by 1.1%, rice - by 0.9%, and milk - by 0.8%.
At the same time, there was an annual decrease in the price of eggs - by 6.2%, sugar and granulated sugar - by 2.8%, cheese - by 1.6%, flour - by 0.8%, and poultry - by 0.6%. Cigarettes increased in price by 7.4% per annum, compared to a growth of 2.3% a year earlier. Of alcoholic beverages, vodka has increased in price most noticeably in annual terms - by 5.4%, and wine and beer have increased in price more modestly - by 2.1% and 1.4%, respectively, whereas a year ago wine fell in price by 1.8%, and vodka and beer increased in price more significantly - by 10.7% and 3.7%, respectively. Bottled mineral water has increased in price in annual terms by 3% (compared to a 0.5% growth a year ago). In the non-food market, the annual growth of prices for jewelry accelerated - from 6.1% to 25.2%, and large and small household electrical appliances and equipment continued to grow in price - by 2.9-5.2% (against 3.2-2.3% growth a year ago). Medicines and medical equipment began to grow in price - by 4.3-4% per annum, whereas a year ago there was a decrease in the price of this group of goods by 1-3.4%. The annual growth of prices for furniture slowed - from 2.2% to 0.8%. At the same time, gardening equipment continued to fall in price - by 4.4% per annum (against 1.2% a year ago), clothing - by 2.6% (compared to 3.1% a year ago), disposable household goods - by 1.6% (against 3.6% a year ago), building materials - by 0.7% per annum (against 2.2% a year ago), tableware - by 0.3% (against 0.7% a year ago). Prices for footwear began to decrease - by 0.8% (compared to growth of 0.2% a year ago).
Gasoline and diesel fuel prices have decreased year-on-year (June 2025 to June 2024) by 7.6% and 10.9%, respectively, while a year ago there was a jump in the cost of gasoline by 25.7% and diesel fuel by 16.5%. In the first half of 2025, gasoline and diesel fuel prices dropped by 8% and 5.9%, respectively, which was also observed last year during the same period - gasoline fell by 6.3% and diesel fuel by 4.3%. As for tariffs for services, there was a significant increase r in transport - by 26.8% (and for insurance - by 12.2%), comprehensive services for organizing recreation - by 14.7%, preschool and primary education - by 12.3%, higher education - by 7%. Rates for hairdressing and SPA services accelerated in growth - from 5.1% to 12.8%, medical services - from 2.4% to 3.2%. It is worth noting that dental clinic services increased in price by 5.1%, and doctor consultations - by 7.1%. In the hotel business, services only increased in price by 1% (compared to 3.3% growth a year ago).
Rates for financial services slowed in growth from 1.8% to 1.3%. In June, there was a deflation of 1.3% accompanied by a revaluation of the dram against the dollar by 0.6%. In the first half of 2025, with inflation at 1.5%, the dram strengthened against the dollar by 3.1%. For comparison, we note that a year earlier, the June deflation of 0.9% was accompanied by a devaluation of the dram against the dollar by 0.1%, and in the first half of 2024, deflation of 0.9% was accompanied by a strengthening of the dram against the dollar by 4.1%. In June 2025, compared to June 2024, with inflation of 3.9%, there was a strengthening of the dram against the dollar by 1% - from AMD 388.1 to AMD 384.2 / $ 1, while in June 2024, annual inflation of 0.8% and a devaluation of the dram against the dollar by 0.4% were recorded (from AMD 386.7 / $ 1 in June 2023).
It should be noted that the Central Bank of Armenia forecasts inflation in 2025 to be within 3.4-3.2%, compared to the inflation rate of 1.5% in 2024. The forecast also indicates a further approach in 2026 to the updated target level of 3% with a range of +/- 1 p.p., expected to be between 3.2-2.9%. Moreover, inflation in the segment of non-exportable goods, characterized by rigid prices, is expected to increase in 2025 to 2.7-2.6% (up from 2.5% in 2024) and is anticipated to continue growing in 2026 to 3.5-2.8%. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, inflation in Armenia by the end of 2025 will remain close to the target level (3%, +/- 1 p.p. - Ed.). Recall that starting from 2025, the inflation target has been set at 3% with a tolerance range of +/- 1 percentage point (versus the previous 4%, +/- 1.5 percentage points). The RA Law "On the State Budget of Armenia for 2025" stipulates that the Central Bank will henceforth be guided by the new inflation target (3%, +/- 1 percentage point) when making decisions on monetary policy.
