What are the projected GDP growth rates for Armenia in 2025 and 2026?  Financial  and economic authorities share their opinions

ArmInfo. "Publishing figures is, in a sense, a thankless task," Armenian Minister of Economy Gevorg Papoyan stated on September 24 during a panel  discussion titled "Armenia's New Reality as an Economic Shock," in  response to ArmInfo's request to forecast GDP growth following the  results of 2025. Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan, however, "took  the risk of" making predictions and shared his expectations for  the  current and upcomingt year.

According to Papoyan, every effort is being made to achieve the best  possible result. Without going into forecasts and figures, he simply  mentioned that for the first time in its history, Armenia rose above  60th place in the Global Innovation Index (up 4 spots in a year,  taking 59th place out of 139 countries worldwide - ed.). "This also  speaks to the quality of our growth," the head of the Ministry of  Economy noted.  The head of the Ministry of Finance, in turn,  recalled that the budget for the current year projects a GDP growth  of 5.1%, while the Medium-Term Expenditure Program for 2026-2028  forecasts GDP growth of 5.1% in 2026, 5.3% in 2027, 5.2% in 2028, and  5.5% in 2029 and 2030. "International organizations have already  adjusted their forecasts for Armenia's GDP growth to 5-5.5%, rather  than the previous 4-4.5%. We believe the figure will exceed the  planned. The extent of this increase is yet to be determined," he  said.

As for economic growth in 2026, Hovhannisyan recalled that the  Medium-Term Expenditure Plan for 2026-2028 initially expected 5.1%  growth for the following year. "However, recent developments have  bolster our confidence in higher  growth rates , leading us to  propose a 5.4% growth rate in the draft state budget for 2026," he  said, noting that the draft budget will be submitted to the Cabinet  tomorrow.  According to the document, the deficit will be reduced  from the current 5.5% (609 billion drams) to 4.5% in 2026.

Vahe Hovhannisyan once again emphasized that Armenia's potential for  generating GDP has increased in recent years, with the figure now  estimated at 5-5.5%. "In recent years, we have entered a different  growth trajectory," the head of the Armenian Ministry of Finance  noted. And even if the country's GDP growth falls below 5.5%, the  trajectory we are moving along has begun to rise, the Minister of  Finance explained.  Recall, according to the Central Bank of  Armenia's September forecast, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 has  been revised up from the previous 5.1-4.6% to an updated 5.8-5.7%  (depending on the inflation trajectory), compared to the actual 5.9%  growth in 2024. The Central Bank has also revised its GDP growth  forecast for 2026, now expecting an acceleration to 5.7-6.2%, instead  of the previously announced slowdown to 4.9-4.4%. Meanwhile, in their  April forecasts, the IMF and the World Bank predicted a further  slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth rate in 2025, to 4.5% and 4%,  respectively.  According to the Statistics Committee, Armenia's GDP  grew by 5.9% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same  period last year. - 0 -