ArmInfo. "Publishing figures is, in a sense, a thankless task," Armenian Minister of Economy Gevorg Papoyan stated on September 24 during a panel discussion titled "Armenia's New Reality as an Economic Shock," in response to ArmInfo's request to forecast GDP growth following the results of 2025. Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan, however, "took the risk of" making predictions and shared his expectations for the current and upcomingt year.
According to Papoyan, every effort is being made to achieve the best possible result. Without going into forecasts and figures, he simply mentioned that for the first time in its history, Armenia rose above 60th place in the Global Innovation Index (up 4 spots in a year, taking 59th place out of 139 countries worldwide - ed.). "This also speaks to the quality of our growth," the head of the Ministry of Economy noted. The head of the Ministry of Finance, in turn, recalled that the budget for the current year projects a GDP growth of 5.1%, while the Medium-Term Expenditure Program for 2026-2028 forecasts GDP growth of 5.1% in 2026, 5.3% in 2027, 5.2% in 2028, and 5.5% in 2029 and 2030. "International organizations have already adjusted their forecasts for Armenia's GDP growth to 5-5.5%, rather than the previous 4-4.5%. We believe the figure will exceed the planned. The extent of this increase is yet to be determined," he said.
As for economic growth in 2026, Hovhannisyan recalled that the Medium-Term Expenditure Plan for 2026-2028 initially expected 5.1% growth for the following year. "However, recent developments have bolster our confidence in higher growth rates , leading us to propose a 5.4% growth rate in the draft state budget for 2026," he said, noting that the draft budget will be submitted to the Cabinet tomorrow. According to the document, the deficit will be reduced from the current 5.5% (609 billion drams) to 4.5% in 2026.
Vahe Hovhannisyan once again emphasized that Armenia's potential for generating GDP has increased in recent years, with the figure now estimated at 5-5.5%. "In recent years, we have entered a different growth trajectory," the head of the Armenian Ministry of Finance noted. And even if the country's GDP growth falls below 5.5%, the trajectory we are moving along has begun to rise, the Minister of Finance explained. Recall, according to the Central Bank of Armenia's September forecast, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised up from the previous 5.1-4.6% to an updated 5.8-5.7% (depending on the inflation trajectory), compared to the actual 5.9% growth in 2024. The Central Bank has also revised its GDP growth forecast for 2026, now expecting an acceleration to 5.7-6.2%, instead of the previously announced slowdown to 4.9-4.4%. Meanwhile, in their April forecasts, the IMF and the World Bank predicted a further slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth rate in 2025, to 4.5% and 4%, respectively. According to the Statistics Committee, Armenia's GDP grew by 5.9% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year. - 0 -
