ArmInfo. In October 2025, Armenian consumer market saw higher inflation of 3.7% compared to October 2024 ( 0.6%). This was primarily due to rising prices in food products and services in the transportation, tourism, and beauty salon sectors. Inflation for the first 10 months of 2025 was 1.4% (compared to 0.8% deflation in the same period last year), showing a more pronounced increase in prices for services than for food and non-food items. According to the RA Statistical Committee, inflation of 0.3% was recorded in October of this year alone (the same as the previous year), driven by a 0.7% and 0.4% increase in food and non-food prices, respectively, while service tariffs fell by 0.3%. In Yerevan, consumer prices increased by 0.3% in October, compared to a 0.4% increase in October 2024.
Over the 10 months of this year, 1.4% inflation was driven by a more significant increase in services prices of 3.1%, compared to food and non-food prices of 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively. A year earlier, over the 10 months, the deflationary 0.8% resulted from a 2.6-2.3% decrease in food and non-food prices, while services prices increased by 2.6%. In January-October 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, inflation was recorded at 3.3% (against unchanged prices a year ago). Specifically, food prices increased by 5.3% (compared to a decrease of 1.9% a year ago), services increased in price by 3% (the same as a year ago), and non-food items fell in price by 0.1% (compared to 0.5% a year ago).
From October 2024 to October 2025, inflation of 3.7% resulted from a rise in prices for food products by 5.7% and services by 2.9%, with a slight increase in prices for non-food products by 0.9%. In October 2023 to October 2024, low inflation of 0.6% was recorded, provoked by a decrease in prices for non-food and food products by 2.1% and 0.1%, respectively, with an increase in the price of services by 3.3%.
Of the food products, the most significant price increases year-on-year (October 2025 compared to October 2024) were: cocoa - by 25.3%, sunflower oil - by 18.6%, trout - by 16%, fish and seafood - by 15.3%, coffee - by 12.6%, butter - by 12.3%, chocolate - by 12%, lamb - by 10.6%, pork - by 9.9%, peas - by 9.1%, pasta - by 8.2%, fruits - by 7.1%, flour - by 6%, sour cream - by 5.6%, cottage cheese - by 5.2%, matsoni - by 4.8%, tea - by 4.1%, milk - by 4%, buckwheat - by 3.7%, vegetables -by 3,6%, bread -by 3.6%, beef by 3.2%, margarine by 3%, cheese by 2.2%, and eggs by 0.3%. Additionally, there was a year- on-year decline in the price of sugar and granulated sugar, down 6.1%. Moreover, all of these products also increased in price month-on-month, with the exception of fruit, which fell by 4.1% in October.
Cigarette prices increased by 8.3% year-on-year, compared to a 1.3% increase the year before. Among alcoholic beverages, vodka saw the most significant year-on-year increase, up 5.3%, while beer and wine saw more modest increases, up 3.2% and 3%, respectively. Last year, wine fell by 1.5%, vodka saw a more pronounced increase, up 9.8%, and beer saw a more modest 2.7%. Bottled mineral water prices increased by 3.8% year-on-year (compared to a 1.4% increase a year ago). In the non-food market, jewelry prices accelerated year-on-year, rising from 14.8% to 34.6%, while large and small household appliances and equipment continued to rise by 2.5-3.2% (compared to a 3-3.2% increase a year ago). Medicines and medical equipment prices began to rise by 4-4.3% year-on-year, compared to a more modest 2.6% increase a year ago, and a 2.7% decrease in medical equipment prices. Furniture prices, after a slight 0.4% increase last year, fell by 0.1% year-on-year in October. Prices for disposable household goods also increased by 1.1% annually (compared to a 6.3% decline a year ago), footwear by 1.2% (compared to a 1.1% decline a year ago), construction materials by 0.2% (compared to a 2.8% decline a year ago), and tableware and kitchen utensils by 0.2% (compared toa 0.8% decline a year ago). The annual decline in clothing prices began to slow, to 2.1% (from 3.7% a year ago). Gardening tools also began to fall in price, by 6.1% annually (compared to a 3.6% increase a year ago).
Gasoline prices fell year-on-year (October 2025 vs. October 2024) by 1.5%, and diesel fuel by 0.6%, while a year ago there was a more pronounced drop in prices by 5.8% and 8.4%, respectively. Over the 10 months of 2025, gasoline and diesel fuel prices increased by 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively, while last year during the same period there was a decrease in gasoline prices by 4.9% and diesel fuel prices by 8.2%. However, in October 2025, gasoline and diesel fuel prices fell by 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively, while a year ago, in October 2024, gasoline prices rose by 0.1% and diesel fuel prices fell by 0.4%. Regarding service tariffs, significant year-on-year growth was recorded in transportation - by 22.5% (including insurance - by 12%), comprehensive recreation services - by 10.6%, preschool and primary education - by 8.7%, and higher education - by 8.5%. Rates for hairdressing and spa services accelerated - from 5.6% to 11.2%, medical services - from 2.5% to 3.2%.
It is worth noting that dental services increased by 5.5%, and doctor consultations - by 7.1%. In the hotel industry, services increased by 1.6%, while a year ago they fell by 0.1%. Financial sector services also accelerated in growth - from 1% to 2.1%. October's 0.3% inflation was accompanied by a stable dram- dollar exchange rate, while over the first 10 months of 2025, with inflation at 1.4%, the dram strengthened against the dollar by 3.5%. For comparison, a year earlier, October also saw inflation of 0.3%, with a stable dram-dollar exchange rate, while over the first 10 months of 2024, deflation of 0.8% was accompanied by a 4.3% strengthening of the dram against the dollar. In October 2025, compared to October 2024, with inflation at 3.7%, the dram strengthened against the dollar by 1.2%, from AMD 387.2 to AMD 382.7 drams per dollar. In October 2024, comparatively low annual inflation of 0.6% and a more noticeable revaluation of the dram against the dollar of 4.2% were recorded (from AMD 404.3/1$ in October 2023).
It should be noted that in the updated September forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, inflation is expected to be between 4.1 and 3.7% in 2025, compared to 1.5% in 2024. Further in 2026, it is expected to approach the target level, reaching 3.7-3.2%. Moreover, inflation in the non-tradable goods segment, characterized by rigid prices, will decline to 2.2% in 2025 (from 2.5% in 2024), but will rise to 3.5-2.8% in 2026. According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast, inflation in Armenia will remain close to the target level (3%, +/- 1 percentage point - Ed.) by the end of 2025.
Recall, starting in 2025, the inflation target is set at 3% with a tolerance of +/- 1 percentage point (compared to the previous 4%, +/- 1.5 percentage points). The RA Law "On the State Budget of Armenia for 2025" stipulates that the Central Bank, when making decisions on monetary policy, should henceforth be guided by a new inflation target (3%, +/- 1 percentage point).
