ArmInfo. According to forecasts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB - see the report "Warehouse Infrastructure in the Eurasian Region: Opportunity of the Decade"), the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus will lead in warehouse infrastructure growth through 2040.
"Baseline scenario: the warehouse infrastructure area of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia could grow from the current 0.8 million m2 to 4.1 million m2 (CAGR 12%). Optimistic scenario: growth to 5.5 million m2 in the optimistic scenario, CAGR 14%," the EDB statement reads.
Regarding Central Asia, the baseline scenario notes that the warehouse stock of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan will potentially increase from 2.7 million m? in 2025 to 19.6 million m? in 2040 - more than sevenfold, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14%. The optimistic scenario sees growth to 25.5 million m?, with a CAGR of 16%.
The EDB also reported that Russia is expected to have the largest absolute area of warehouse space by 2040; however, the market is close to saturation, and its share will decline as infrastructure accelerates in other countries in the region. Baseline scenario: growth of approximately 37% by 2040 (to 73 million m2 from 53 million m2 in Q1 2025 (CAGR 2.1%)). Optimistic scenario: growth to 86 million m2 (CAGR 3.3%).
"As a result of accelerated growth, the share of Central Asian countries will increase from the current 4.7% to 18.9-20.3% by 2040, while that of the South Caucasus will increase from less than 1% to 4.8-5.1%. This will occur due to a reduction in Russia's share from over 90% to approximately 70%.
The main factors behind the accelerated growth are: increased retail demand in response to positive economic and demographic trends; the reorientation of international trade flows; and the e-commerce boom," the EDB added.
