ArmInfo. The net private transfer inflow to Armenia in January- September 2025 reversed its annual trend, shifting from a 33.3% decline to a 15.5% increase, totaling $1.02 billion. Moreover, for non-commercial transfers, the annual net inflow trend also reversed, moving from a 40.4% decline to a 25% increase, exceeding $523 million in absolute terms. The share of the latter in the total net inflow rose over the year from 47% to 51% (compared to 67% in 2022), according to data from the Central Bank of Armenia.
Breaking down the inflows and outflows, the annual dynamics of transfers from all countries shows that the inflow trend improved from a 7% decline to a 7.3% growth, while the outflow growth remained steady at - 5%. As a result, the inflow volume in January-September 2025 amounted to $4.3 billion (including $854.1 million non-commercial), and the outflow - $3.2 billion (including $331.1 million non-commercial). Moreover, non-commercial transfers shifted the dynamics along the inflow line from a 28% decline towards a 15% growth, and along the outflow line, the trend improved imperceptibly - from a 0.2% decline to a 2% growth.
Russia remains the leading source of transfers to Armenia, with the United States in second place, followed by the United Kingdom, Switzerland in fourth, and the UAE in fifth. These countries are also among the top five destinations for transfers from Armenia. Based on the results of the first nine months, Russia regained its lead in transfer outflows, displacing the UAE to second place, with Switzerland in third, the United States in fourth, and the United Kingdom in fifth.
The inflow of transfers from Russia amounted to $2.7 billion, while the outflow of transfers to Russia amounted to $564.8 million. Moreover, the year-on-year dynamics of both indicators improved: in particular, the inflow of transfers from Russia increased from a 14.3% decline to a 6.1% increase, while the outflow of transfers to Russia increased from an 11% decline to a 25.7% increase. This brought the net inflow from a 15% decline to a 2% increase, reaching $2.2 billion. As a result, Russia's share of the inflow decreased slightly over the year from 65% to 64%, while increasing in the outflow from 15% to 18%.
The inflow of transfers from the US amounted to $528.3 million (maintaining annual growth at 4.5%), while the outflow in this direction was $421.8 million (reversing the annual growth from 33% to a 2.1% decline). This resulted in a net inflow of transfers from the US of $106.5 million, moving from a 53.3% decline to a 43% increase. As a result, the US share of both inflow and outflow decreased over the year to 12-13% from 13-14%. The inflow of transfers from the UK amounted to $156.8 million (with annual growth accelerating from 21.3% to 2.4 times), while the outflow was $135.3 million (with annual growth accelerating from a 61% decline to 28%). This resulted in a net inflow of transfers from the UK of $21.5 million, with annual growth accelerating from an 82% decline to a significant 2.5 times. As a result, the UK's share of both inflows and outflows increased to an equal 4% from 2-3% a year ago. The inflow of transfers from Switzerland exceeded $98 million (with annual growth accelerating from a 21% decline to 28%), while the outflow was $444.3 million (with annual growth accelerating from 41.2% to 68.4%). This increased the negative level of net transfer inflows from Switzerland by 85.1% per annum, to $346.3 million. As a result, Switzerland's share of the inflow remained at 2%, while in the outflow it increased from 9% to 14%.
The inflow of transfers from the UAE exceeded $79 million, but the outflow was more significant - $473.8 million. However, year-on-year, both inflow and outflow dynamics reversed from 45-60% growth to a 5- 26% decline. This reduced the negative net inflow of transfers from the UAE by 30% to $394.8 million. As a result, the UAE's share of inflows remained at 2%, while its share of outflows decreased from 21% to 15%.
According to experts, the current transfer situation reflects a significant decline (following Russia's lifting of duties on UAE jewelry imports) in the volume of "gray transactions" involving diamonds and gold, which in the previous two years had been characterized by reimports from Russia and reexports to the UAE. Based on the results of the first half of 2025, customs data indicate a significant reduction in the export and import volumes of gold and diamonds: diamonds are now imported primarily from the UAE (52.1%) and India (36.1%), and exported to the UAE (59.4%) and Russia (36.4%). However, for gold, the main destinations have remained unchanged - imported from Russia (91.6%) and exported to the UAE (91.3%).
It is worth noting that in 2024, the inflow of transfers to Armenia from all countries exceeded $5.8 billion (including $1.01 billion of non-commercial transfers), while the outflow was $4.3 billion (including $440 million of non-commercial transfers), with the former growing by 2.5% and the latter by 7.1%. As a result, the net inflow of private transfers to Armenia in 2024 decreased by 9% - to $1.5 billion. Moreover, for non- commercial transfers, the decline in net inflow was impressive - by 35% to $573.5 million. The share of the latter in the total net inflow decreased over the year from 53% to 38%. Russia's share in the inflow decreased over the year from 69% to 66%, while remaining at 16% in the outflow. The UAE's share in the inflow is negligible - from 1.3% to 2%, while in the outflow it increased from 14% to 20%. The US share in the inflow remained at 12%, and in the outflow it moved from 12% to 14%.
