ArmInfo. Political scientist and energy security expert Vahe Davtyan has raised questions regarding the true origin of a fuel shipment that arrived in Armenia from Azerbaijan last week. According to him, Azerbaijan may actually be re-exporting a third-country gasoline to Armenia via Georgia, gasoline that is imported to Armenia via the Black Sea or Upper Lars, and then through Georgian infrastructure.
The expert recalled that a few days ago, Armenia received its first shipment of gasoline from Azerbaijan. At the same time, the import of high-quality AI95 gasoline was announced. "Let's examine this economic action without geopolitical considerations, focusing on dry facts and figures. The Heydar Aliyev Baku Oil Refinery, in operation since 1976, is periodically shut down for repairs, almost every two years. This means that Azerbaijan is also dependent on imported petroleum products, especially motor fuel, and is unable to fully develop the production of AI95 gasoline, due to the need for high-tech solutions. To confirm these assumptions, let's look at official data. Azerbaijan began producing AI95 gasoline only recently, in the second half of 2024. To ensure its sale on the domestic market, the government, by special decision, set a lower price to guarantee competitiveness compared to imported gasoline. However, this protectionist approach has been ineffective, largely due to the poor quality of AI95 gasoline produced in Azerbaijan," Vahe Davtyan noted.
As a result, according to him, in January-September 2025, the Baku Oil Refinery produced 45.02% less AI95, preferring the lower-quality AI92. Most importantly, AI95 production was not included in Azerbaijan's 2026 state budget. The production process is expensive, and its sale on the market is also subject to special state regulation. "Let's say Azerbaijan is an importer of gasoline, especially AI95, 85- 90% of which is imported from Russia, Romania, and the UAE. Therefore, the shipment to Armenia likely consisted of third-country gasoline, the same gasoline that is imported to Armenia via the Black Sea or Upper Lars, and then through Georgian infrastructure. These are the 'economic ties'," the expert stated.
Recall , on December 19, a 22-car freight train carrying 1,280 tons of gasoline arrived in Armenia from Azerbaijan.
