ArmInfo. Yerevan appears consciously ready to sacrifice its own economic interests for a public display of loyalty to new political centers of gravity, as noted by political scientist Vahe Davtyan in his article.
According to him, one of the most symbolic "results" of 2025 has been the sharp decline in trade turnover between Armenia and Russia. However, in reality, we are talking about a return to a natural, organic level. The illusion of double-digit growth was maintained not through a structural economic transformation, but through a re-export function driven by geopolitical circumstances. This model was never a product of internal development, but a byproduct of external pressures. "Today, Yerevan is consciously prepared to sacrifice its own economic interests for the sake of a public demonstration of loyalty to new political centers of gravity. However, the authorities' calculations here are clearly incorrect: it was precisely the economic growth of recent years that ensured the relative legitimacy of the political regime. While the economy was growing, social contradictions were frozen. Now, with the shift away from Moscow, stagnation is becoming inevitable, paving the way for a predictable domestic political crisis. In this context, the "cold" realism of former US Ambassador to the OSCE Dan Baer is indicative.
According to him, Armenia should prepare for several cold winters on its path to ending "dependency." This is a convenient formulation, especially if these winters are planned to be overcome at the expense of the resources and patience of other nations. However, the numbers are not metaphorical. Trade turnover between Armenia and the Russian Federation has decreased from $12.4 billion to $6 billion, and imports from Russia have decreased by 58%. The role of a re-export hub was not lost automatically: it was transferred under direct pressure from the EU and the US, within the framework of "sanctions compliance requirements," the political scientist noted. Vahe Davtyan emphasized that the economic base is once again reminding itself of this. Or will inevitably do so in the near future.
It should be noted that, according to the RA Statistics Committee, trade turnover between Armenia and Russia for the first 10 months of 2025 amounted to $5.72 billion, a decrease of 47.8% compared to the first 10 months of 2024. Meanwhile, exports from Armenia decreased by 9.2% to $2.38 billion, while imports from Russia, as an exporting country, amounted to $3.48 billion-a decline of 58.3%.
