ArmInfo.The share of Armenia's top five trading partners-Russia, China, the UAE, Iran, and Germany-decreased in January-February 2026 to a combined 53% of total turnover (down from 64% in January-February 2024), reaching $1.6 billion in absolute terms.
Two of them, Russia and the UAE, continued to decline, but at a more moderate pace of 17.4% and 40.9%, respectively, compared to a year ago (62.1% and 80%). Meanwhile, foreign trade volumes with China and Germany grew by 18.4% and 48.2% (from a decline of 22% and 9% a year ago), while growth with Iran slowed from 12% to 6%, ass evidenced by data from the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia.
Armenia's foreign trade with the EAEU fell by 14.7% year-on-year in January-February 2026 (compared to a 61.5% decline a year ago) to $877.6 million, while with the EU it grew by 61.6% (compared to a 7.5% decline a year ago) to $482.3 million. Moreover, among EAEU countries, a decline in trade volumes was recorded only for the Russian Federation, while most EU countries preferred to increase volumes - these are Germany, Bulgaria, Italy, France, Belgium, Poland, the Netherlands, Romania, Spain, Slovakia, Austria, Finland, Denmark, Lithuania, Cyprus and Portugal, with many of them doing so significantly. This change in annual dynamics reduced the share of the EAEU in Armenia's structure of foreign trade from 36.7% to 28.6% (due to the Russian Federation - from 35.5% to 26.8%), while the EU's share, on the contrary, increased from 10.6% to 15.7%.
In terms of exports, the TOP-5 includes Russia, China, the UAE, Iraq and Switzerland, with a total volume of $803.1 million, and in terms of imports, the leading five are Russia, China, Iran, the USA and Germany, with a total volume of $939.7 million. In the direction of Russia and the UAE, both exports and imports are declining. In the direction of China, a surge in exports is accompanied by a decrease in imports, and in the direction of Germany, high export growth remains with a surge in imports. In the direction of the USA, a weakening decline in exports is accompanied by a high double-digit growth of imports, in the direction of Switzerland, a jump in exports is noted and a double-digit growth of imports is reached, in the direction of Iraq. The emerging decline in exports is accompanied by an accelerating growth of imports by several times, and in the direction of Iran, the decline in exports is accelerating and the growth of imports is slowing. Armenia's foreign trade turnover for January-February 2026 totaled $3.1 billion, representing a 9.3% year-on-year increase (compared to a 52% decline a year ago). Improvements were noted in both exports and imports, with growth rates of 12.6-7.3% (compared to a 59.7-45.8% decline a year ago), reaching $1.2 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively.
Armenia's negative foreign trade balance for January-February 2026 decreased slightly (by 0.3% y-o-y) to $726.5 million, of which the negative $204.2 million and $140.7 million were with the EU and China, respectively, with the former growing by 36% and the latter declining by 45%. The negative balance of foreign trade with the United States increased more significantly - by 1.5 times to $66.9 million, while the negative balance in the direction of Iran increased more modestly - by 22% to $85.8 million. Armenia's foreign trade with Russia reached a positive balance - $15.3 million (with an annual increase of 2.2 times), which brought the balance with EAEU countries from negative to positive - $28.5 million (with an annual increase of 2.4 times). The positive trade balance with the UAE also decreased by almost half, to $120 million. Notably, the positive trade balance with Bulgaria increased significantly, by more than 12 times to $32.8 million; with Belgium, by 3 times to $12.5 million; with Switzerland, by 2.5 times to $40.8 million; and with the Netherlands, by almost 2 times to $3.1 million. Meanwhile, the positive balance with Iraq, on the contrary, decreased by 10% to $49.1 million.
It should be noted that according to the updated forecast from the Central Bank of Armenia's in March of this year, after nearly equal growth of exports and imports in 2024 of 30.9-32.7% and a decline in 2025 of 30.5% (for exports) and 23.7% (for imports), the dynamics will improve toward growth in 2026, with exports expected to increase by 25.5-28.5% and imports to 36.7-34.9%. The Central Bank expects the growth trend to continue in 2027, but the growth rate will weaken for exports to 16-19% and imports to 11- 14.3%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its December forecast, also expected Armenia's foreign trade to turn from recession to growth in 2026, and projected very modest export and import rates of 2.2- 2.1%, with further moderate growth in 2027 of 3.4-3.7%.
