ArmInfo. By April 1, 2026, Armenia's per capita debt burden exceeded $4,700 This is due to a proportionate and similar decelearion in the annual growth of both the public debt (slowing from 12% to 8%) and the per capita debt burden (slowing from 10% to 7%). Meanwhile, unlike previous years, the per capita debt burden is now driven by domestic debt rather than external debt – $2.4 thousand vs. $2.3 thousand. This shift is due the accelerated annual growth of domestic dept (from 10.5% to 14.3%) and the stagnation of external debt growth (from 7.1% to 2.1%).
This dynamic occurred against the backdrop of a slowdown in Armenia's population growth by April 1, 2026, to 3.1 million, or by 0.6%, or by 19,000 people. In comparison, just a year ago, a 9.5% increase in the per capita debt burden was accompanied by a population growth of 1.4%, or by 41.4 thousand people, to 3.081 million. The coverage ratio of foreign debt by gold and foreign exchange reserves, which exceeded $14.7 billion as of April 1, 2026, jumped to 77.3% from 56.2% a year ago. This surge was driven by a marked acceleration in reserve growth to 41.2% and a slowdown in external debt growth to 2.7%. A year earlier, both indicators demonstrated a noticeable improvement: external debt accelerated from 0.4% to 8.6%, and reserves recovered from an 11.3% decline to an 18.8% increase. Notably, by April 1, 2026, both gross international reserves and external debt set new records – $5.5 billion and $7.2 billion, respectively.
According to the RA Statistical Committee, the deceleration of annual public debt growth from 12% to 8% is largely due to a weakening growth of external debt. Specifically, external debt slowed in annual growth from 8.6% to 2.7%, amounting to $7.2 billion (2.7 trillion drams), while domestic debt only slightly slowed in growth from 15.1% to 14.3%, exceeding $7.5 billion (over 2.8 trillion drams). The share of external debt in the national debt as of April 1, 2026, decreased over the year from 51.4% to 48.7%, while domestic debt, on the contrary, increased from 48.6% to 51.3%. Moreover, domestic debt began to outweigh the national debt in July 2025, effectively maintaining its dominance in 2026. According to statistics, in Q1 2026 alone, public debt increased by 1.3%, as a result of a slowdown in both external debt (to 2%) and domestic debt (to 0.7%). A year earlier, the quarterly increase in public debt was more significant (5.8%), accompanied by an 8.2% increase in external debt and a 3.3% increase in domestic debt.
ArmInfo Investment Company considers it appropriate to note that as of 2026, the RA Statistical Committee is publishing public debt reports in a new format. Pursuant to the December 17, 2025, amendments to the Law "On Public Debt," the Ministry of Finance now categorizes debt under a revised structure. Specifically, the new format accounts for the external and domestic debt of the Government and local municipalities, while Central Bank debt and Government guarantees are listed separately and excluded from the total public debt figure. Consequently, these excluded amounts totaled approximately $634 million at the end of 2025 and roughly $638 million at the end of March 2026. However, to provide a comprehensive picture and ensure year-on-year comparability, ArmInfo IC will continue to include these excluded figures in the total public debt volume in its reporting.
