ArmInfo. Armenia currently has no viable alternative to Russian energy resources, according to Russian political scientist Vladimir Avakov.
In a conversation with journalists in Yerevan on July 4 on the sidelines of the "Energy Security of the South Caucasus: Armenia's Choice" conference, the expert emphasized the obvious priority for all countries to ensure energy security in the South Caucasus. "Here, it is fundamentally important to understand that no matter how hard the European Union and Western countries try to replace Russia, they are unable to do so, even within their own domestic political context," Avakov said. According to him, no matter how much they dangle "beautiful carrots" today, they will be especially unsuccessful in doing so in the countries of the South Caucasus, if only because of the impossibility of replacing Russian energy resources with others.
To illustrate, he explained that Turkey, which neighbors the South Caucasus, can only provide 10% of its own energy needs and is forced to purchase them from others, including Russia. Avakov is confident that Turkey will be unable to supply Armenia with energy resources even if the normalization of Armenian- Turkish relations and the opening of the border are positive. According to him, even if this were to be hypothetically assumed, the cost to Armenia would be several times higher than that of Russian energy.
"As for Azerbaijan, which has energy resources, firstly, we must understand that they are depleting. Secondly, it has allied obligations under contractual agreements, which it clearly will not violate to improve relations with Armenia. And even if such supplies are made, the price will clearly not be lower than Russian ones," the Russian expert said.
He acknowledged that, in the long term, it is possible to strengthen relations with Middle Eastern countries to diversify markets, but noted that this will require time, appropriate infrastructure, and money. He noted that this is especially problematic given the treacherous US aggression against Iran. Avatkov emphasized that the US undoubtedly seriously miscalculated in its aggression against Iran, but Iran has suffered serious damage and needs time to recover. Under these circumstances, there is no point in talking about creating new energy flows in the short term.
