ArmInfo.Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has already spoken quite clearly and openly about the prospect of importing electricity from Azerbaijan. The rationale is as follows: with the dynamic development of artificial intelligence infrastructure in Armenia, an electricity shortage could arise that could only be covered through imports. This is what energy security expert and political scientist Vahe Davtyan writes.
"Neither by increasing domestic generating capacity, nor by implementing the Armenian nuclear project, nor even by developing solar energy and energy storage systems. Imports are the way to overcome the expected problems of the Armenian energy system.
Meanwhile, the problem isn't cross-border electricity trade. The problem is that imports from Azerbaijan are increasingly viewed as an alternative to developing domestic generation. It's important to understand that Armenia is a net importer of goods. Electricity is one of the few areas that could give the republic the opportunity to develop exports of high-value-added products, with all the ensuing consequences. However, the liberalization of the electricity market, which began in February 2022, is based on the principle of increasing dependence on imports, not on stimulating exports. Around two dozen licensed traders are already eagerly awaiting the launch of new cross-border power lines. Not to increase exports, but to expand imports of cheaper electricity, including from Azerbaijan, which will inevitably resort to dumping to strengthen its position in the Armenian market," the expert noted.
He called for an approach to this from two fundamentally different perspectives: consumer and strategic. The former implies abandoning national priorities in the energy sector. "If cheaper electricity can be imported from foreign markets, then why bother developing domestic production?
It's enough to declare peace, open borders, and live off foreign supplies. This approach is, to put it mildly, questionable. This is especially true given that 'peace' and 'open borders' are part of the official discourse of only one side in the conflict. The conflict hasn't ended, but has entered a new phase of infrastructural and logistical confrontation. Given these realities, the second, strategic approach is more appropriate to the new security challenges. It involves assessing critical infrastructure, including energy, through the lens of ensuring the stability of security systems and the state's geostrategic positioning. From this perspective, energy becomes one of the pillars of national security. However, it's not hard to guess which of these approaches is most suitable for the Armenian authorities today to advance the agenda of 'peace' and 'regional cooperation.' Hence the emphasis on imports over exports in Yerevan's official statements," Vahe Davtyan emphasized.
