Monday, August 31 2026 17:11
Karina Melikyan

Dollarization rate of demand deposits up since May 2026, while  declining in loans and term deposits

Dollarization rate of demand deposits up since May 2026, while  declining in loans and term deposits

ArmInfo. In Armenia, the dollarization rate of demand deposits has increased since May 2026, from 36.8% to 42.3% in July, while continuing to decrease in loans and term deposits, with the dram component remaining dominant in these portfolios. This is evidenced by data from the Central Bank of  Armenia, calculated based on indicators of banks and credit companies.

According to the Central Bank of Armenia, the volume of lending by  resident banks exceeded 8.8 trillion drams ($24.1 billion) by August  2026. Specifically, dram-denominated loans exceeded 5.99 trillion  drams ($16.4 billion), while foreign currency loans totaled 2.8  trillion drams ($7.7 billion), with annual growth for both  decelerating to a flat 26% (from 27-31% a year ago). Consumer loans  and mortgages account for the largest share of these loans (a  combined total of over 3.8 trillion drams or $10.5 billion, a 22%  annual increase). Among economic sectors, the industrial sector,  trade, food service/services, construction, transportation, and  communications are the most likely to receive foreign currency loans,  while the agricultural sector, conversely, sees dram-denominated  loans predominate.

In the structure of deposits, which reached 8.3 trillion drams ($22.6  billion) by August 2026, 6.6 trillion drams ($17.9 billion) are  resident funds, 68.4% of which are attracted in drams. The volume of  the latter accelerated in year-on-year growth from 24% to 33%, while  the growth of residents' foreign currency deposits accelerated more  moderately - from 6% to 12%. In particular, residents' demand  deposits exceeded 2.8 trillion drams ($7.7 billion), and time  deposits - 3.7 trillion drams ($10.2 billion), with the former  growing year-on-year by 26% and the latter by 25%. This kept the  growth of the total resident deposit portfolio at 26%. Non-resident  deposits grew by a double-digit 17% year-on-year (to 1.7 trillion  drams or $4.7 billion), with a similar change in the dynamics of  dominant foreign currency deposits (to 1.4 trillion drams or $3.9  billion).

The historical maximum level of loan dollarization was recorded in  February 2016 at 64.4%, but over the following three years, this  dominant factor declined, and by May 2019, the dram component had  taken over, reaching 50.1%. From that point through July 2025, the  dramization level of the loan portfolio increased to 69%, decreasing  only slightly to 68.4% by August 2026.

The regulator also notes that the dollarization level of residents'  deposits and loans, having reached a historical maximum of 66.8% in  August 2015, then declined over the next four years, and in July  2019, the baton was passed to the dram component, whose level has  since increased from 50.2% to 68.5% in July 2026 (versus 64.8% in  July 2025). This reduced the share of foreign currency deposits and  loans in the money supply from a historical maximum of 55.2% in  January 2016 to 27.2% in July 2026, i.e., the level of dramization  over this period increased from 44.8% to 72.8% (versus 70% in July  2025).

Specifically, the dollarization rate of resident individual demand  deposits as a percentage of total individual demand deposits reached  a historic high of 56.4% in January 2015. However, two years later,  in January 2018, the dram and foreign currency components were  completely equal. Subsequently, the dollarization rate in this  portfolio declined more often than it increased, a trend that  continued until February 2022, when it regained its dominant  position. Its subsequent growth throughout the year nearly returned  it to its historic high of 55.8% in February 2023 (versus a record  56.4% in January 2015). This preponderance of the foreign currency  component in individual demand deposits in 2022 and partially in 2023  was explained by the influx of a large number of relocated  individuals (mainly from Russia) into Armenia, who massively opened  accounts in Armenian banks to conduct financial transactions,  including money transfers. However, as the excitement subsided, the  dollarization of individual demand deposits declined, handing over  the dominant baton to the dram component in May 2024 - 50.3%. From  this point on, the dramization of resident individual demand deposits  increased, reaching 63.2% in April 2026, after which it began to  decline - to 57.7% in July (versus 58.9% in July 2025). History  appears to be repeating itself: a new wave of relocated Armenians  from Russia are opening current accounts and depositing foreign  currency, leading to an increase in the dollar component of demand  deposits in Armenian banks.

In the term deposits of resident individuals, the dollarization level  reached a historic high of 74.8% in February 2016, followed by a  decline of almost six years, with the dram component becoming  dominant in April 2022, reaching 50.8%. This decline lasted only  three months, and the foreign currency component once again became  dominant. However, a slight gap and fluctuations in the dollar  component weakened its position by May 2023, with the dram component  becoming dominant at 50.3%. Since then, the dramization rate of  resident individual term deposits has increased, reaching 63.9% in  July 2026 (versus 58.2% in July 2025).

The turbulent year of 2022, the decline in loan dollarization was  driven by passive lending, which banks preferred to generate excess  profits from relocators' foreign exchange transactions, from selling  them international cards at high prices, and from increased  commissions on their money transfers. In 2023, a more pronounced  dramization of the loan portfolio was facilitated by legislative  restrictions on foreign currency mortgages for residents. From this  point through July 2026, the share of mortgages in banks' total loan  portfolios increased slightly, from 20% to 21%, while declining more  noticeably in consumer loans, from 50% to 47%, accompanied by a  slowdown in double-digit growth from 32% to 17%. At the same time,  the total loan portfolio, previously supported by high mortgage  activity, continued to grow at a double-digit rate, only slightly  slowing in annual growth from 28% to 26%. In banks' mortgage  portfolios, the dominant component in the dram has already reached  95.6% (according to Central Bank data on loans to residents as of  July 2026), with dram-denominated mortgages slowing in annual growth  from 32% to 20%, while foreign currency mortgages accelerated in  decline from 8% to 20%.