ArmInfo. The decision to initiate the Republic of Armenia's accession to the European Union calls into question the full implementation of the EAEU's competences. This is stated in the report "On the Possible Consequences of the Suspension of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union of May 29, 2014, with Respect to the Republic of Armenia," published on the Russian government's website.
The risks to the development of economic cooperation within the EAEU and, consequently, the economies of EAEU member states from the Republic of Armenia's decision and the measures aimed at its implementation, according to the report, raise the question of the Republic of Armenia's continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time, the other Union members are not interested in Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU. However, the latter have the right to make a joint decision to temporarily suspend the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union of May 29, 2014, with respect to the Republic of Armenia.
If such a decision is made, based on the results of calculations, supplies of traditionally exported goods from the Republic of Armenia to the EAEU could decrease by $622.5 million. If the projected scenario is realized, they will amount to $949.4 million, still almost four times higher than 2015 figures, but significantly below 2025 levels. A 46.7% gain from 2015-2025 will be lost.
With respect to traditionally imported goods from EAEU member states, economic modeling allows us to predict a decline in imports in the range of 24-25% (construction materials, light industry goods) to 29% (machinery and equipment, electronics). The average decline will be 26.8%. Under the specified input conditions, if the Republic of Armenia's membership in the EAEU were suspended, the value of traditionally imported goods from EAEU member states to the Republic of Armenia would decrease by $547.5 million, from $2,042.9 million to $1,495.4 million.
If the projected scenario is realized, imports would amount to $1,495.4 million, still 2.3 times higher than 2015 figures, but significantly lower than 2025 levels. A 39.4% gain from 2015-2025 would be lost.
The scenario estimate for gas imports by the Republic of Armenia from EAEU member states is based on a price of $300 per 1,000 cubic meters, while maintaining the physical supply volume. Compared to the current base price of $177.5 For 1,000 cubic meters, the price increase will be approximately 69%.
As a result, if Armenia's membership in the EAEU is suspended, Armenia's total trade turnover with EAEU member states will decrease by $4,439.7 million, or 55.6% compared to 2025, from $7,990.6 million to $3,550.9 million.
Withdrawal from the EAEU, as well as the decrease in trade turnover, will inevitably impact mutual trade in services with the Union's member states. First and foremost, demand for transportation, business, and financial services supplied to EAEU member states will decline. According to data for 2025, the Republic of Armenia's exports of services to EAEU member states amounted to $1,295 million, while imports of services from EAEU member states amounted to $787.6 million. Total services turnover with EAEU member states amounted to $2,082.6 million, with a positive balance for Armenia of $507.4 million. The assessment results predict a 41.7%, or $540.4 million, decline in service exports from the Republic of Armenia to EAEU member states—from $1,295 million to $754.6 million.
The report also touched on the impact on labor migration. According to the Eurasian Economic Commission, in 2025, the number of workers from the Republic of Armenia working in other EAEU member states amounted to 126,900. Of these, 124,600, or 98.2%, worked in the Russian Federation, 2,100 in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 222 in the Republic of Belarus, and 22 in the Kyrgyz Republic. The suspension of the Republic of Armenia's participation in the EAEU will entail the termination of the labor regime for migrant workers from the Republic of Armenia working in the Union countries, as stipulated by the Treaty on the EAEU. Ultimately, this will lead to a decrease in the volume of remittances from Union member states. The reasons for this will be the deterioration of working conditions for citizens of the Republic of Armenia in the Union member states, the increase in their financial costs (for example, related to acquiring patents or receiving medical care), and a general reduction in the volume of trade and economic transactions.
Russia is the main source of remittances from EAEU member states to the Republic of Armenia. In 2025, it accounted for $3,878.3 million, or 98.1% of all incoming remittances from EAEU countries. According to estimates, the expected level of remittances will amount to $1.85 billion.
All of the above-mentioned negative consequences of the country's suspension of the EAEU will also affect its trade with third countries. Firstly, the suspension of the Republic of Armenia's participation in the EAEU will entail the suspension of trade agreements between the EAEU and third countries for the Republic of Armenia. According to estimates, total exports of goods from the Republic of Armenia to countries outside the EAEU will decrease by $2,776 million, or 54.6%, from $5,086.8 million to $2,310.8 million. Imports of goods will decrease by $1,704.6 million, or 21.1%, from $8,062.9 million to $6,358.3 million.
According to calculations, the suspension of Armenia's participation in the EAEU could lead to a reduction in the country's GDP by 15.6% ($4.6 billion), total exports of goods and services by 41.6% ($6 billion), and total imports of goods and services by 27.1% ($4.8 billion). Inflation growth relative to the baseline is estimated at 14.9 percentage points, while consumption declined by 14.6% ($3.5 billion).
The report noted that with Armenia's accession to the EAEU, nominal GDP in US dollars increased (from 2015 to 2025) by 2.8 times, from $10.6 billion to $29.2 billion, while GDP per capita increased by 2.7 times, from $3.5 thousand to $9.5 thousand. In real terms, the country's GDP increased by 71.5% compared to 2015.
