Wednesday, July 6 2011 20:17
Head of Ardshininvestbank points to stable economic growth
ArmInfo. Armenia's is beginning to grow again, which will lead to 4-5% GDP growth by the end of this year, Acting Chairman of the Management Board of Ardshininvestbank Karapet Gevorgyan said in an interview to ArmInfo.
He said that the key partners of Armenia are overcoming the crisis: in the CIS GDP will grow by 4%, in the United States and the European Union - by 2.8% and 2.4%, respectively.
"The recovery of the global economy will have a positive effect on Armenia. We will be able to increase our exports, especially in industry and mining. This will stimulate borrowing and will improve the financial standing of our corporate customers," Gevorgyan said.
He said that this year the bank expects increase in private money transfer flow and population's income. This will stimulate the bank's retail business. "Growing consumer demand will boost customer lending and may lead to 3.5-5.5% growth in trade and services," the banker said.
He said that the world's commodity prices will continue to rise. Growing prices of industrial products and precious metals may lead to 6-7% increase in Armenia's industry. In construction there will be 2-4% growth due mostly to activities in the earthquake zone and the North-South highway project financed by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. "High activity on the construction and real estate markets may foster mortgage lending," Gevorgyan said.
Agriculture will grow by 7-9% due to intensifying export of agricultural products. But everything here will depend on weather and farmers' land cultivation plans.
"This year we expect 5-7% inflation against 4% (+/-1.5%) level set by the Central Bank. This projection considers the current growth in wheat and sugar prices and the possible growth in oil prices. The possible decision of the United States and the European Union to raise their official bank rates may also cause high rates worldwide," Gevorgyan said.
In 2011 there will be two factors influencing Armenian national currency: negative foreign trade balance may pull it down while growing money transfer flow (due mostly to recovering Russian economy) may push it up.
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