Tuesday, March 3 2015 15:43
In 2014 Armenia's GDP grew by 3.4% to 4.5 trillion AMD
ArmInfo. In Jan-Dec 2014 versus Jan-Dec 2013, Armenia's GDP rose by 3.4% to 4.526 trillion AMD (over $10 bln at market prices). In 2013, GDP grew by 3.5% to 4.273 trillion, and in 2012 it rose by 7.2% to 4 trillion AMD, the National Statistical Service of Armenia reports.
In Q1 2014 GDP dropped by 46.7% to 748.9 bln AMD, in Q2 it grew by 27.3% to 952.1 bln AMD, in Q3 it rose by 49.2% to 1.365 trillion AMD, and in Q4 it grew by 6.9% to 1.460 trillion AMD.
In 2014, the GDP inflator index made up 102.4% versus 103.2% in 2013, 98.8% in 2012, 104.3% in 2011, 107.8% in 2010, 102.6% in 2009 and 105.9% in 2008.
According to the WB forecast, in 2015 Armenia's GDP will rise by 3.3% and the growth for 2016-2017 will be 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively. The figure mentioned by the WB is lower than the Armenian Government's initial forecast in the budget of 2014 (5.2%) and higher than the forecast later revised by the Armenian Finance Ministry (3%). The GDP growth targeted in the Armenian budget of 2015 is 4.1%.
The IMF expects the Russian economic activity to drop by 3% in 2015 and by 1% in 2016. The IMF explains that the forecast reflects the economic impact of the slump in oil prices and escalation of the geopolitical tension. In the meantime, the IMF has reduced the world GDP growth forecast for 2015 and 2016 to 3.5% and 3.7%, respectively. The IMF thinks that the sudden slowdown in growth in Russia and the tangible Russian ruble depreciation have considerably weakened the prospects of other CIS countries. The IMF expects the economy of the CIS countries to drop by 1.4% in 2015 and to rise by 0.8% in 2016.
In the meantime, the Eurasian Development Bank believes that Armenia's GDP will not differ much from that in 2013-2014 and may total 3.8% in 2015. EDB experts think that in 2015 the situation in Armenia will experience the impact of two opposite factors. On the one hand, possible slowdown in Russian economy will produce a negative effect. On the other hand, the accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) will contribute to expansion of export of agricultural products to the EEU countries, especially in the light of retention of the sanctions against Russia. Armenia may also hope for reduction in the prices of energy resources (due to the price decline on international markets), as well as for potential extension of foreign investments.
To note, guided by the Government's decision dated 25 January 2011, the National Statistical Service of Armenia publishes the monthly economic activity (in %). As regards the quarterly and annual GDP in absolute terms, the Service publishes it 90 days after the period under review.
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