Tuesday, September 13 2011 17:50
Inflationary expectations get more indefinite in Armenia
ArmInfo. The inflationary expectations in Armenia are getting increasingly indefinite.
Though the inflationary background has become softer, the expectations for the year are still high.
According to the survey of Armenia's banks, credit companies, households and non-financial organizations published in the Central Bank's monetary-credit program for Q2 2011, 66.7% of the banks and 54.8% of the credit companies expect inflation to be within 5.5-8.5%. Fewer households expect high inflation: 43.3% in Q2 against 69.3% in Q1.
The banks and credit companies expect interest rates to be stable despite expected drop in government bond yield.
According to the CB's projections, in the second half of 2011 inflation will drop to 3.2%, In Q3 2012 it will make up 2.7%. There is 74.2% probability that by the end of 2011 inflation will make up 3-5.5% and 70.5% probability that by the end of Q2 2012 it will drop to 1-4%.
Aug 1 2011 the average yield of government bonds on the repo market was 10.57%, on the inter-bank repo market - 9.91%, on the primary market - 8.69% (1-year bonds). Sept 6 the rate of refinancing was lowered from 8.5% to 8%.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Jan-Aug 2011 there was 0.2% deflation, in Aug 2011 - 0.6% deflation. In Aug 2011 as compared with Aug 2010 there was 4.8% inflation, in Jan-Aug 2011 as compared with Jan-Aug 2010 - 8.8% inflation.
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