ArmInfo. Armenia has all chances to ensure satisfactory economy growth by 2.2% according to the state budget of 2016, MP from Prosperous Armenia parliamentary faction, economist Mikael Melkumyan expressed this opinion answering to ArmInfo's question. "If the country will manage to show this indicator with the resources has, this is not bad. 2.2% growth is not an excellent but almost satisfactory indicator", he noted.
The economist thinks it is hardly possible that the official forecast will be exceeded, as in 2016 Armenia will have to overcome such challenges as significant decline of transfers from Russia and weakening of Russian ruble. "Unfortunately, weakly differentiated Armenian economy will not be able to get free from Russian factor's influence", Melkumyan stated. According to him, harsh drop of prices on oil should not be ignored as the country's economy may both suffer and benefit from that.
The economist noted that in order to tackle the challenges its is necessary first and foremost to solve system problems, which have been accumulated for years, particularly to free economy from monopolies and oligopolies, to increase efficiency of anti corruption policy, to create conditions for healthy and fair competitiveness, to declare amnesty for agricultural and industrial credits, to ensure protection of investments in all areas, to increase liquidity of investment capital, boost export by state subsidies of foreign exchange risks. "However strong political will is needed to implement all these steps", the MP added.
To note, World Bank forecasts a 2.2% GDP growth for Armenia in 2016. International Monetary Fund gives similar forecast. According to EBRD growth will be 2% in 2016. The Central Bank of Armenia forecasts the economic growth at 1.6-2.7% in 2016.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Jan-Nov 2015 as compared to the same period of 2014, economic growth in Armenia fell from 3.8% to 2.9%. Foreign trade turnover of Armenia in the same period decreased by 20.6% year over year, particularly export dropped by 4.7% and import by 26.2%.