Economic activity in Armenia slackened growth from 3.9% to 3.1% in 2015 amid tangible decline in foreign trade turnover

ArmInfo. Economic activity in Armenia grew by 3.1% for 2015 amid 20.4% rise in December alone versus 3.9% rise for 2014 (19.6% growth in Dec 2014). In Jan-Dec 2015, the key drivers of economic growth were agriculture, industry and services.

According to the preliminary data of the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Jan-Dec 2015 versus Jan-Dec 2014, the gross agricultural output rose by 11.7% to 1.002 trillion AMD ($2.1 bln), industry rose by 5.2% to 1.3 trillion AMD ($2.8 bln), services - by 2.7% to 1.2 trillion AMD ($2.5 bln), electric power output - by 0.6% to 7798.2 mln kWh, construction - by 0.3% to 457.2 bln AMD ($956.7 mln). The only sector suffering decline in 2015 was trade - down 8% to 2.3 trillion AMD ($4.8 bln).

The economic activity growth in December 2015 was mostly due to the rise in construction - by 62.1%, trade - by 46.2%, services - by 27.6%, electricity output - by 9% and industry - by 9.3%. In the meantime, in December 2015 agriculture dropped by 6.4%.

In absolute terms, in December 2015 trade amounted to 278 bln AMD ($575.6 mln), construction - 89.6 bln AMD ($185.6 mln), electric power output - 733.6 mln kWh, services - 128.7 bln AMD ($266.4 mln), industry - 129.8 bln AMD ($268.8 mln). The industrial product price index grew by 0.6% in Dec 2015 amid 0.8% drop throughout 2015 and the consumer price index rose by 1.7% in Dec 2015 amid 3.7% growth throughout 2015.

In Jan-Dec 2015 versus Jan-Dec 2014, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia dropped by 20.6% to 2.3 trillion AMD ($4.7 bln) amid 17.6% rise in Dec 2015 to 242.1 bln AMD ($526.4 mln). In Jan-Dec 2015, export totaled 710.5 bln AMD ($1.5 bln) with a 3.9% fall over year, while import amounted to 1.6 bln AMD ($3.3 bln) with a 26.5% fall over year. In December 2015 import grew by 18.1% to 162 bln AMD ($335.7 mln) amid 16.3% growth in export to 68.4 bln AMD ($141.7 mln).

In Jan-Dec 2015, the average AMD/USD exchange rate was 477.92 AMD/$1, and in December 2015 - 482.93 AMD/$1 versus 415.92 AMD/$1 in Jan-Dec 2014 and 463.53 AMD/$1 in Dec 2014.

To note, the WB and the IMF forecast economic growth slowdown to 2.2% in Armenia for 2016, while the EBRD forecasts even 2%. The Central Bank of Armenia expects the GDP growth to slow down to 1.6- 2.7% in 2016. The Armenian state budget of 2016 fixes the target GDP growth at 2.2%.