Wednesday, January 27 2016 19:03

ArmInfo. The considerable decline in import (by 26.5%), which resulted in the drop of the domestic commodity turnover by 8% to $4.8 bln, had a negative effect on the growth rates of economic activity in Armenia, economist Vilen Khachatryan said at a press conference on January 27. He added that in absolute terms import dropped by $1.2 bln to $3.2 bln versus $4.4 bln a year before.

"I am surprised to hear that the country has experienced economic growth. I qualify what is currently going on in the Armenian economy as an "import shock" with the negative indicator growing by over 20%," the expert said.

Khachatryan said that in 2015 the monthly sales of the imported goods on the domestic market of Armenia dropped by $100 mln as compared with 2014. This means that each resident of Armenia spent less than $1 daily. "It is no wonder that the trade outlets (including shops) are closing down, some trade buildings are rented and the goods are sold at distress prices," he said.

According to the National Statistics Service of Armenia reports that the domestic commodity turnover of Armenia in 2015 totaled $4.8 bln (down 8% versus 2014), with import dropping by 26.5% and export declining by 3.9%. In Jan-Sept 2015 the monthly minimum consumption basket fell by 6.6% to 46,747 AMD ($98) in September 2015 versus 49,058 AMD ($105) in December 2014. In Jan-Dec 2015, the average AMD/USD exchange rate was 477.92 AMD/$1, and in December alone - 482.93 AMD/$1. For comparison, in Jan-Dec 2014 the exchange rate was 415.92 AMD/$1, and in December 2014 - 463.53 AMD/$1, in Jan-Dec 2013 - 409.63 AMD/$1 and 405.32 AMD/$1 - in December alone.

To note, in 2016 the WB and the IMF forecast 2.2% GDP growth in Armenia and the EBRD - 2%. The Central Bank of Armenia forecasts 1.6-2.7% growth in 2016. The state budget of Armenia fixes the target GDP growth at 2.2%.