Armenian dram appreciates against US dollar by 0.3% in September 2016, amid 1.5% year-over-year revaluation

ArmInfo. The Armenian dram (AMD)  revaluated against US dollar (USD) by 1.8% in Jan-Sept 2016 and 0.3%  in September alone, amid 1.5% year-over-year revaluation, according  to the National Statistics Service.  In September 2016, the average  exchange rate totaled 474.1AMD/1USD versus 481.1 AMD/1USD in  September 2015 and 408.8 AMD/1USD in September 2014 and 408.2  AMD/1USD in September 2013.  A year earlier, in Jan-Sept 2015, AMD  devaluated against USD by 3.8%, in September along - 0.3% amid 17.7%  y-o-y devaluation. 

According to the source, inflation in the consumer market in Sept  2016 totaled 0.1% (1.9% y-o-y deflation), in Jan-Sept 2016, deflation  totaled 3.7%  (1.6% y-o-y deflation). For comparison, in 2015,  inflation in Sep totaled 0.1% amid 0.3% devaluation of AMD against  USD. In Jan-Sept, a 2% deflation was registered amid 3.8%  depreciation of AMD against USD. In Sept 2014, a 0.4% inflation was  registered, amid 0.3% revaluation of AMD against USD. In Jan-Sept a  0.8% deflation was accompanied by as much devaluation of AMD against  USD.  In Jan-Sept 2013, inflation totaled 3.2% amid 0.7% devaluation  of AMD against USD and in Sept alone, there was a 0.2% deflation and  as much devaluation of AMD against USD.   In Jan- Sept 2012,  deflation totaled 1.5% amid 6.7% devaluation of AMD against USD and  in Sept alone the consumer prices increased 0.5% amid as much  devaluation of AMD against USD.  In Jan-Sept 2016, a 0.6% inflation  was accompanied with 3.3% devaluation of AMD and the 0.8% inflation  in Sept alone was accompanied with 1.4% devaluation of AMD against  USD.  

As compared to Sept 2008 and Sept 2009, AMD depreciated against USD  57% and 25%, respectively. as AMD revaluated twice in the given  period: 22% on Mar 3 2009 and 45% in Oct-Dec 2014. In 2009, it  happened as Central Bank return to floating exchange rate policy,  while in 2014 it was a result of external factors: depreciation of  the Russian ruble, shrinking private money transfers, export, import,  and slackening of economic growth. 

To recall, in 2015, on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia  AMD weakened against USD from 477 to 482 AMD/$1 on average and  strengthened against EUR from 571.5 to 529 AMD/1EUR and against  Russian ruble from 8.2 to 6.9 AMD/1 RUR. Between December 14 and 28,  the Central Bank made almost daily interventions. AMD depreciated  amid decline of foreign trade turnover (by 20.6%), while import  dropped more significantly (by 26.5%) than export (by 3.9%) as well  as the decline in transfer inflow to Armenia more than by 30%, and  this happened in conditions of low buying capacity of the population  and low economic activity in the country.  By 9 Sept 2016, on the  retail forex market of Armenia AMD appreciated against USD to 475  AMD/$1, at the same time depreciating against EUR and RUR to 536  AMD/1EUR and 7.4 AMD/1EUR, respectively. As of Oct 7 2016, AMD  revaluated against USD and (to 475 AMD/$1 from 474 AMD/$) and RUR (to  7.7 AMD/1RUR from 7.5 AMD/1RUR) and revaluation against EUR to 528  AMD/1EUR from 532 AMD/1EUR.  

According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, AMD  depreciation against USD totaled 4.2% in 2015 amid drop of consumer  prices only by 0.1%. In December alone AMD depreciated against USD by  0.6% (to 482.9 AMD/$1) amid 1.7% inflation. In 2014, AMD devaluation  by 14.1% (in December alone - by 10% amid 3% inflation) was  accompanied by 4.6% inflation. In 2013, AMD revaluated 0.1% to USD  amid 5.6% inflation. In 2012, amid 3.2% inflation devaluation of AMD  against USD was registered at 5.8%. In 2011 inflation totaled 4.7%  and AMD depreciated by 6.2% versus 9.4% inflation in 2010 and AMD  revaluation by 5.2%.