Tuesday, November 15 2016 11:46
Naira Badalian

Expert: Armenian industrial growth connection  to  any indicators like copper prices or Russian economy rehabilitation is a mistake

Expert: Armenian industrial growth connection  to  any indicators like copper prices or Russian economy rehabilitation is a mistake

ArmInfo. Armenia's industrial activities indications for the period of January-September 2016 state that budget expectations for the year of 2017, promising GDP growth for 3,2 % are unjustified, expressed an opinion to ArmInfo  economy expert Ashot  Yeghiazaryan.

Expert recalled, that the industrial growth in Armenia in January-September  2016 slowed down from 3,7 % to 1,6 % . During the similar period of 2014 the economy activities growth was higher - 4,3%.  According to his words, the drop down tendency will remain also in the next year, and connecting domestic industrial growth   to  any indicators like copper prices or Russian economy rehabilitation is a mistake.  flows to Armenia, but there are no positive movements in this aspect. This year the part of foreign investments to Armenia decreased to 1,7% GDP, and total net flow of investments in the real sector of Armenian economy is negative -  AMD 16.9 bln  ( versus positive AMD 81.9 bln and  AMD 30.7 bln a year before).

According to the expert, all other budget expectations are related to  GDP 3,2 % growth. The basis for securing the budget balance, and, correspondingly, for this indicator are the tax collection and the state debt management availability.

Ashot Yeghiazaryan is sure, that is  possible to show  even higher GDP indicators. But it is ecessary to establish more comfortable conditions for business and to recover the lost human potential. To reach this target, expert advises to reject the policy of self-isolation, that Armenia has adopted due to being the sublimate of Russian political interests in area, and to sign an appropriate Framework with EC as soon as possible.

The 2017 Draft Budget estimates the GPD nominal growth at 5%, or AMD  5405 bln. The economy growth will form 3,2%, within the deflator  index  of 1,7 (which, according to the Ministry of Finance, this year will form around 2,4%), with a deficite of  AMD 150,1 bln. The GDP  deflator index is not set as per  the end of the  current year, and  in 2017 this indicator will form around 101,7%. The balance part of  the budget is planned to increase  for AMD 27 bln up to AMD 1.210 bln  in 2017, and the expenditures part should be decreased for AMD 13 bln  down to  AMD 1.360 bln ( according to the current rate - about USD 2, 87 bln).  The incomes/ GDP correlation is 22,4%. In the revenues part  USD 1.135 bln will be capsulated by taxes and fees ( versus AMD 1.065  bln in 2016), AMD 31 bln will be formed by grants (versus 31,3 bln  in 2016), AMD 44 bln - other incomes (versus 25,8 bln in 2016).

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