Tuesday, November 29 2016 18:47
Karine Melikyan

Unemployment in Armenia is on the rise, Central Bank says

Unemployment in Armenia is on the rise, Central Bank says

ArmInfo. According to the  updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), in 2016  unemployment in Armenia will make up 18.1% (versus the previously  expected 17.8%), according to the CBA's monetary policy program for  Q4 2016. In 2017, the CBA expects unemployment to grow to 18.3%,  whereas in its previous forecast for 2017-2018 the CBA expected  annual decline of unemployment by 0.4 pct points. 

To note, in 2015 unemployment in Armenia made up 18.5% by official  data, in 2014 - 17.6%, in 2013 - 16.2%. In H1 2016, unemployment grew  from 18.2% in Q1 to 18.4% in Q2. 

According to the CBA's forecast, in 2016 the average nominal salary  in Armenia will rise by 2%, and this pace will be maintained in 2017.  Afterwards the growth will make up 5% in 2019. In the private sector  the average salary will be increased by 4.1% in 2016 (versus the  previously expected 6.5%), but due to the expected deflation the  actual salary in the private sector will grow by 5.4%. In 2016 the  minimum salary amount was retained at 55,000 AMD, which came into  effect on 1 July 2015. In 2017, the lower threshold of salary will  not be revised. Given the expected economic growth (2.8-4.3%), the  average nominal salary will grow by 3.7%, and the growth will make up  5% in 2018 and almost 6.2% in 2019. In the pubic sector, the CBA  expects the average salary to drop by 0.3% in 2016 (versus the  previously expected 0.7% growth).  Given the Government's policy of  optimization of the government staff, in 2017 salaries in the public  sector will grow by 0.4%, and the growth will make up 2.3% in 2018  and 4% in 2019.

The National Statistical Service of Armenia says that the nominal  salary in Armenia slowed down the growth rates from 9.2% in Jan-Oct  2015 to 2.4% in Jan-Oct 2016, and amounted to 185,689 AMD ($387).  In  Jan-Oct 2016, the salary in the public sector made up 159,791 AMD  ($333), dropping by 1.1% as compared to Jan-Oct 2015. The salary in  the private sector slowed down the growth rates from 7.1% to 5.2%,  and totaled 219,893 AMD ($458). In Jan-Dec 2015 the nominal salary in  Armenia grew by 7.7%; in particular, in the public sector the salary  rose by 8.2%, and in the private sector - 7%, versus 7.6%, 7.4% and  7.7% a year before. 

Meanwhile, according to the WB forecasts, poverty in Armenia will  drop from 25.6% in 2015 to 24.9% in 2016, with further decline to  24.1-23.2% in 2017-2018. 

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