ArmInfo. The state debt of Armenia increased 10.4% in Jan-Oct 2016 to $5.6 billion (2.7 trillion drams), as both foreign and internal debt grew. By preliminary data of the Finance Ministry of Armenia provided to ArmInfo by the National Statistics Service, the foreign debt grew 5.3% in Jan-Oct 2016 to $4.5 billion (2.2 trillion drams) amid 39.6% growth in the internal debt to $1.1 billion (505.4 billion drams). On year over year basis, the foreign debt grew 21.8% and the internal one - 45%. As a result, the total state debt of Armenia rose 25.6%.
The Government accounts for $4.04 billion or 89% of total foreign debt. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) borrowed the remaining $498.9 million or 11%. Government's foreign debt increased 5.3% for Jan-Oct 2016 (versus 3.2% decline a year before), with that of the CBA growing 4.7% (versus 11.5% decline a year before). The foreign debt of the Government and the CBA grew 23.3% and 10.9% year over year, respectively.
Government bonds accounted for 91.4% of the total internal state debt for Jan-Oct 2015 (versus the previous 87%), or $971.7 million (461.9 billion drams), with the absolute value growing 63.2% year-over-year and 44.3% for Jan-Oct 2016 alone. Armenian Eurobonds tanked next - $84.6 million or 40.2 billion drams, accounting for 7.9% (versus the previous 13%) of the total internal state debt. The absolute indicator grew 2.2-fold y- o-y amid 13.6% decline for Jan-Oct 2016. The guarantees account for the remaining 0.7% or $7 million of total, amid zeroed commercial loans (since Nov 2015).
The debt burden per capita in Armenia amounted to $1.9 thousand by Nov 1 2016, with foreign debt accounting for $1.5 thousand ($550 in 2009) of total, as the state debt kept growing amid high rates of migration. In fact, taking into account the real scales of migration, the foreign debt burden per capita would be much higher (by statistics, the population of Armenia totaled 2.994 million versus 3.004 million a year before and 3.270 million five years before). The coverage of foreign debt by gold and foreign exchange reserves fell from 41.1% to 39.7% for nine months of 2016, amid 6.4% growth of the foreign debt and 2.6% rise in reserves. The latter's biggest growth was fixed in Q3 (16.2%) following 11.7% decline in H1 2016. According to the updated WB forecast made in November, the share of the state debt in GDP will grow from 48.8% (2015) to 52.5% in 2016, with further growth to 53.8-53.5% in 2017-2018.
As of Jan 1 2016, the state debt of Armenia totaled 2.5 trillion drams or $5.1 billion (versus 2.1 trillion in 2014 and 1.9 trillion in 2013). The foreign debt accounted for 2.1 trillion drams or $4.3 billion in total state debt (versus 1.8 trillion in 2014 and 1.6 trillion in 2013). The internal debt accounted for 368.4bln drams or $761.5 bln. Gold and currency reserves in 2015 totaled $1.8bln. The coverage of foreign debt by gold and foreign exchange reserves made up 41.1% by 2016, exceeding the indicator of 2014 by 39.3% and yielding to the level of 2013 by 57.7%. The result of this, according to ArmInfo's analysts, is that in 2013 amid growth of gold and foreign exchange reserves by 27.8% (to $2.3 bln) rates of foreign debt growth were not tangible (5% to $3.9 bln), after which in 2014 amid decline of gold and foreign exchange reserves by 34.8% (to $1.5 bln) foreign debt increased by 13.7% (to $3.8 bln) and in 2015 both reserves and foreign debt demonstrated upward trend. Thus, in 2015 gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by 20% and 19%, respectively.