Thursday, December 1 2016 17:02
Karine Melikyan

Debt burden per capita in Armenia amounts to $1.9 thousand

Debt burden per capita in Armenia amounts to $1.9 thousand

ArmInfo. The state debt of  Armenia increased 10.4% in Jan-Oct 2016 to $5.6 billion (2.7 trillion  drams), as both foreign and internal debt grew. By preliminary data  of the Finance Ministry of Armenia provided to ArmInfo by the  National Statistics Service, the foreign debt grew 5.3% in Jan-Oct  2016 to $4.5 billion (2.2 trillion drams) amid 39.6% growth in the  internal debt to $1.1 billion (505.4 billion drams). On year over  year basis, the foreign debt grew 21.8% and the internal one - 45%.  As a result, the total state debt of Armenia rose 25.6%.  

The Government accounts for $4.04 billion or 89% of total foreign  debt.  The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) borrowed the remaining  $498.9 million or 11%.  Government's foreign debt increased 5.3% for  Jan-Oct 2016 (versus 3.2% decline a year before), with that of the  CBA growing 4.7% (versus 11.5% decline a year before).  The foreign  debt of the Government and the CBA grew 23.3% and 10.9% year over  year, respectively.

Government bonds accounted for 91.4% of the total internal state debt  for Jan-Oct 2015 (versus the previous 87%), or $971.7 million (461.9  billion drams), with the absolute value growing 63.2% year-over-year  and 44.3% for Jan-Oct 2016 alone. Armenian Eurobonds tanked next -  $84.6 million or 40.2 billion drams, accounting for 7.9% (versus the  previous 13%) of the total internal state debt. The absolute  indicator grew 2.2-fold y- o-y amid 13.6% decline for Jan-Oct 2016.  The guarantees account for the remaining 0.7% or $7 million of total,  amid zeroed commercial loans (since Nov 2015).

The debt burden per capita in Armenia amounted to $1.9 thousand by  Nov 1 2016, with foreign debt accounting for $1.5 thousand ($550 in  2009) of total, as the state debt kept growing amid high rates of  migration. In fact, taking into account the real scales of migration,  the foreign debt burden per capita would be much higher (by  statistics, the population of Armenia totaled 2.994 million versus  3.004 million a year before and 3.270 million five years before). The  coverage of foreign debt by gold and foreign exchange reserves fell  from 41.1% to 39.7% for nine months of 2016, amid 6.4% growth of the  foreign debt and 2.6% rise in reserves. The latter's biggest growth  was fixed in Q3 (16.2%) following 11.7% decline in H1 2016. According  to the updated WB forecast made in November, the share of the state  debt in GDP will grow from 48.8% (2015) to 52.5% in 2016, with  further growth to 53.8-53.5% in 2017-2018.

As of Jan 1 2016, the state debt of Armenia totaled 2.5 trillion  drams or $5.1 billion (versus 2.1 trillion in 2014 and 1.9 trillion  in 2013). The foreign debt accounted for 2.1 trillion drams or $4.3  billion in total state debt (versus 1.8 trillion in 2014 and 1.6  trillion in 2013). The internal debt accounted for 368.4bln drams or  $761.5 bln. Gold and currency reserves in 2015 totaled $1.8bln. The  coverage of foreign debt by gold and foreign exchange reserves made  up 41.1% by 2016, exceeding the indicator of 2014 by 39.3% and  yielding to the level of 2013 by 57.7%. The result of this, according  to ArmInfo's analysts, is that in 2013 amid growth of gold and  foreign exchange reserves by 27.8% (to $2.3 bln) rates of foreign  debt growth were not tangible (5% to $3.9 bln), after which in 2014  amid decline of gold and foreign exchange reserves by 34.8% (to $1.5  bln) foreign debt increased by 13.7% (to $3.8 bln) and in 2015 both  reserves and foreign debt demonstrated upward trend. Thus, in 2015  gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by 20% and 19%,  respectively.

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