Saturday, December 24 2016 13:01

Armenian Dram retained its positions against USD depreciating against RUR

Armenian Dram retained its positions against USD depreciating against RUR

ArmInfo. On Dec 12-16, transactions on the forex interbank market of Armenia grew by 60,3%, following triple growth  a week before. In the meantime, the purchase and sale of USD and EUR demonstrated active dynamics amid the subsiding interest in RUR operations.

As a result, during the current week AMD kept retained its position against USD from  484.5 to 484 AMD/$1, appreciating against EUR from 505 to 504 AMD/1EUR and depreciating against RUR from 7.9 to 8 AMD/1RUR.  Earlier, in Jan- Sept 2016, AMD appreciated against USD from 482 to 474 AMD/USD1, depreciating against EUR from 529 to 532 AMD/1EUR, and against RUR from 6.9 to 7.5 AMD/1RUR. In October AMD devaluated against USD to 476 AMD/USD1, revaluated against EUR to 521 AMD/1EUR, while the AMD/RUR exchange rate remained unchanged - 7.5 AMD/1RUR.  This tendency continued in November. Since the beginning of the year the foreign exchange market showed signs of life rarely, making one at a time transaction between March and May: USD100 thousand in March, USD2.950 mln in April and USD800 thousand in May, after which it was passive. In Jan-Oct 2016, the Central Bank bought USD on the foreign exchange market in April (USD2.4 mln), June (USD50.2 mln), August ($19.8 mln), and September (USD28.8mln), October ( USD 50.8 mln at 475,47/1USD rate) and sold in January and February (USD53.1 mln and USD 41.5mln, at AMD484,69 /$1 and  AMD 492,59/$1e respectively).

                The press office of the Central Bank of Armenia has told ArmInfo that on Dec 19-23 the forex interbank market increased the amount of daily transactions, with the biggest amounts registered on Friday and Wednesday - $6.050 mln and $5.250 mln, respectively, and the smallest amount on Monday - $189 thsd. The total amount of the transactions on the forex interbank market during the current week amounted $13.789 mln (versus $4.459 mln a week before), and the average exchange rate was 485.28 AMD/$1 (versus 482.37 a week before). At the same time, on the intrabank market USD purchase rose by 36%, while EUR purchase grew by 26%. USD sales rose by 39%, and EUR sales grew by 28%. RUR purchase fell by 23%, and RUR sales - by 54%. As a result, the purchase totaled $90.6 mln at the average exchange rate of 483.77 AMD/$1, 9.7 mln EUR at 511.09 AMD/1EUR, and 1.007 bln RUR at 7.82 AMD/1RUR.  The sales amounted to $115.3 mln at the average rate of 485.64 AMD/$1, 13.4 mln EUR at 514.14 AMD/1EUR, and 353.9 mln RUR at 7.96 AMD/1RUR. The total amount of the transactions on the forex interbank market during the current week amounted $22.074 mln (versus $13.789 mln a week before), and the average exchange rate was 482,01 AMD/$1 (versus 485,28  a week before). At the same time, on the intrabank market USD purchase rose by from 36% to 44%,  while EUR purchase grew by from 26% to 55%.  USD sales dropped down from 39% to 4%, and EUR sales trend  grew by 23 % (versus 28% a week before).  Within this picture, RUR purchase operations showed different dynamics : buy changed its flow from  23% decrease to 11% growth, and sales drop down slowed  from 54% to 3%.  As a result, the purchase totaled $131  mln at the average exchange rate of 481,28 AMD/$1, 14,9 mln EUR at 499,32 AMD/1EUR, and 1.1 bln RUR at 7.78 AMD/1RUR. The sales amounted to $119.8 mln at the average rate of 482.42 AMD/$1, 15.7  mln EUR at 504.75 AMD/1EUR, and 341.7 mln RUR at 7.91 AMD/1RUR. 

                According to the source, during the previous week (December 19-23), the Armenian banks provided AMD loans worth 39.1  bln AMD and USD loans worth $69.6  mln. The amount of AMD loans fell by 14% and the amount of USD loans rose - for 24%, meanwhile a week ago the amount of AMD loans fell by 5% and the amount of USD loans rose by 61%. 

                To recall, in 2015, on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia AMD weakened against USD from 477 to 482 AMD/USD1 on average and strengthened against EUR from 571.5 to 529 AMD/1EUR and against Russian ruble from 8.2 to 6.9 AMD/1 RUR.  Between December 14 and 28, the Central Bank made almost daily interventions.  AMD depreciated amid decline of foreign trade turnover (by 20.6%), while import dropped more significantly (by 26.5%) than export (by 3.9%) as well as the decline in transfer inflow to Armenia more than by 30%, and this happened in conditions of low buying capacity of the population and low economic activity in the country.  Since early 2016, AMD started depreciating again on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia to 496AMD/USD1, however since March it strengthened and stood at 482 AMD/1USD by March 25. In overall in H1 2016 AMD appreciated to 477 AMD/USD1 from 482 AMD/USD1, devaluating in mid Feb (to 496 AMD/USD1 from 482AMD/USD1 on Feb 12), in the first decade of April (to 484.5AMD/USD1 from 479 AMD/USD1), in mid May (to 480.5 AMD/USD1 from 479 AMD/USD1-on May 12), in the early and late June (to 479 AMD/USD1 from 478 on June 3 and to 477 AMD/USD1 from 476 AMD/USD1 on June 30). In July AMD appreciated to 476 AMD/USD1 only in the beginning of the third decade, after which it stood at the initial level of 477 AMD/USD1. In August, AMD demonstrated revaluation - 475 AMD/USD1 by August 31 and stood at this level in the first ten days of September, after which it further revaluated.  Thus, by September 30, AMD appreciated against USD and EUR to 474 AMD/USD1 and 532 AMD/1EUR, respectively. Along with it, AMD depreciated against RUR to 7.5 AMD/1RUR. In October AMD devaluated against USD to 476 AMD/1USD, revaluated against EUR to 521 AMD/1EUR, while the AMD/RUR exchange rate remained unchanged - 7.5 AMD/1RUR.  This trend continued in November. By November 30, AMD depreciated against USD to 480.5 AMD/$1, at the same time appreciating against EUR to 511 AMD/1EUR and appreciating against RUR at 7.4 AMD/1RUR. In early December AMD kept depreciating against USD, at the same time weakening against EUR and RUR, but in mid-December AMD appreciated against EUR and continued weakening against RUR, retaining its position against USD.

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