Friday, February 24 2017 23:18
Karine Melikyan

Central Bank of Armenia forecasts 2.2-3.2%GDP growth for 2017 and 2.8-3.9% growth for 2018

Central Bank of Armenia forecasts 2.2-3.2%GDP growth for 2017 and 2.8-3.9% growth for 2018

ArmInfo. In its monetary policy program for Q1 2017, the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) forecasts 2.2-3.2%GDP growth for 2017, 2.8-3.9% growth for 2018, and 3.2-4.4% growth for 2019. The GDP growth for 2016 is mentioned at 0.3-0.5% versus the previous 1.3-1.8%. These are the forecasts with 30% probability, while the forecasts with 90% probability mention 1.2-4.6% GDP growth for 2017, 1.3-5.8% growth for 2018, 1.3-6.7% growth for 2019.

The CBA says that the GDP growth will accelerate mostly due to expansion of export capacities by means of supplying new range of goods to the new markets given the Government's policy supporting the export- oriented companies. Meanwhile, given the expected long-term economic tends in the trade partner countries, as well as the structural changes in the Armenian economy, the long-term balanced GDP growth is estimated at 4-5%, and the current potential GDP growth - at 1-1.5%. However, the CBA thinks that both the long-term and mid-term GDP growth may slow down unless rapid structural reforms and essential growth of investments in export-oriented sectors of economy are ensured. In 2018-2019, the return on investment will be high if the investments are mainly comprised of direct foreign investments or funding at the expense of domestic savings.

In 2017, the industrial sector is expected to demonstrate 4.4-5.2% growth (versus 5.5-6.1% expected for 2016), construction is expected to drop 2.5-3.1% (versus 1.8-2.6% expected decline for 2016), services will grow by 2.4-3% (versus 2.2-2.6% expected rise for 2016), agriculture will rise by 4.5-5.3% (versus 0.7- 0.1% forecasted decline for 2016). In 2018-19, industry will rise by 5-6%, services - by 3.2-4%, construction - by 0.7-1.3%, and agriculture - by 4-5%.

According to the CBA's forecast, in 2017 individuals' transfers are expected to grow by 4-6% (versus 6- 8% forecasted decline for 2016) due to the recovered economic growth in Russia, whose share is the biggest in the transfers to Armenia. The current account deficit against GDP will make up 0-2% in 2017 (versus previously forecasted 1.5-2.5% for 2017 and 2-3% forecasted for 2016). Export of goods and services is expected to grow by 5-7% in 2017, while import will rise by 0-2% (versus previously forecasted 14% growth in export for 2016 and 0% growth in import).

To note, the World Bank forecasts Armenian GDP growth at 2.7% for 2017, the IMF - at 3.4%, the Eurasian Development Bank - at 2.9%, Fitch - at 2.1%, and the Armenian state budget mentions 3.2% GDP growth for 2017.  In Jan-Dec 2016, the economic activity growth in Armenia slackened to 0.5% from 3.1% in 2015, with services (7.1%) and industry (6.7%) remaining the economy drivers.

According to the Central Bank of Armenia, in 2016 the inflow of individuals' transfers to Armenia dropped by 6.1% to $1.5 bln, while the outflow grew by 7.4% to $817 mln. As a result, the net inflow of individuals' transfers fell by 17.8% in 2016. The inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia dropped by 11.1% to $896.9 mln in 2016, while the outflow grew by 16.5% to $333.4 mln, and the net inflow of transfers from Russia amounted to $563.5 mln (down 22% versus 2015).  Russia's share in the inflow and outflow of transfers was the biggest - 58.5% and 40.8% versus 61.8% and 37.6% a year before.


News
Belarus is interested in strengthening cooperation with Armenia in  field of high technologiesBelarus is interested in strengthening cooperation with Armenia in  field of high technologies
GITC, IBM to implement artificial intelligence education programme GITC, IBM to implement artificial intelligence education programme 
Japanese government to provide grants for implementation of 2  programs in Armavir and Lori regions  Japanese government to provide grants for implementation of 2  programs in Armavir and Lori regions  
Armenia`s developers to submit documents online soonArmenia`s developers to submit documents online soon
Armenia`s vice-premier calls for larger share of national currencies  in EAEU tradeArmenia`s vice-premier calls for larger share of national currencies  in EAEU trade
EDB to intensify work in ArmeniaEDB to intensify work in Armenia
Ardshinbank named the Best Bank of the Year by The Banker international magazineArdshinbank named the Best Bank of the Year by The Banker international magazine
EDB analysts have no assessment of economic benefits that Armenia  will receive from unblocking of regional transport corridorsEDB analysts have no assessment of economic benefits that Armenia  will receive from unblocking of regional transport corridors
Greenhouse for growing roses to be built in Aragatsotn region of  ArmeniaGreenhouse for growing roses to be built in Aragatsotn region of  Armenia
Gnel Sanosyan: Unfortunately, there have been cases of revealing  design and construction flaws during implementation of subvention  programsGnel Sanosyan: Unfortunately, there have been cases of revealing  design and construction flaws during implementation of subvention  programs
Armenian entrepreneurs appealed to PM to extend embargo on import of  Turkish goods Armenian entrepreneurs appealed to PM to extend embargo on import of  Turkish goods 
EDB Analyst: Armenia`s public debt level will remain above  pre-pandemic level until 2026EDB Analyst: Armenia`s public debt level will remain above  pre-pandemic level until 2026
EDB ready to provide loan for construction of Meridian highway of  Europe-Western China transport corridorEDB ready to provide loan for construction of Meridian highway of  Europe-Western China transport corridor
IFC ready to participate in reforms in Armenia IFC ready to participate in reforms in Armenia 
42% year-on-year growth in net private money transfers to Armenia in  Jan-Oct 202142% year-on-year growth in net private money transfers to Armenia in  Jan-Oct 2021
Armenia Securities Exchange  introduced corporate bond exchange  indices for the first time in regionArmenia Securities Exchange  introduced corporate bond exchange  indices for the first time in region
6.3% rise in real estate prices in Armenia`s capital this Oct6.3% rise in real estate prices in Armenia`s capital this Oct
Central Bank of Armenia joins Sustainable Banking and Financial  NetworkCentral Bank of Armenia joins Sustainable Banking and Financial  Network
EDB formulates idea of  Eurasian transport frameworkEDB formulates idea of  Eurasian transport framework
Tigran Balayan presented Armenia`s investment opportunities to  representatives of Dutch business sectorTigran Balayan presented Armenia`s investment opportunities to  representatives of Dutch business sector
Global businesses set to battle for talent as hiring plans fuel growth ambitionsGlobal businesses set to battle for talent as hiring plans fuel growth ambitions
Armenia`s gross international reserves increased by 38.2% per annum  by November 2021Armenia`s gross international reserves increased by 38.2% per annum  by November 2021
Vahan Kerobyan will take part in Second Eurasian Congress in MoscowVahan Kerobyan will take part in Second Eurasian Congress in Moscow
Statistics: Armenia`s GDP increased by 11.1% per annum in 9 months of  2021Statistics: Armenia`s GDP increased by 11.1% per annum in 9 months of  2021
New power plant of 254 MWe launched in YerevanNew power plant of 254 MWe launched in Yerevan
As of November 20, 2021, tax collection in Armenia exceeded  pre-crisis index of 2019 by 4.5%As of November 20, 2021, tax collection in Armenia exceeded  pre-crisis index of 2019 by 4.5%
Association of Restaurateurs reacted negatively to new decision of RA  Health Ministry Association of Restaurateurs reacted negatively to new decision of RA  Health Ministry 
ANIF, Masdar company discuss Ayg-1 project ANIF, Masdar company discuss Ayg-1 project 
Unpredictable pandemic situation, steadily high inflation remain major risks to scenario of Armenia`s  economic development - EDBUnpredictable pandemic situation, steadily high inflation remain major risks to scenario of Armenia`s  economic development - EDB
US$30m OPEC Fund loan to Ameriabank to promote sustainable energy and support small businesses in ArmeniaUS$30m OPEC Fund loan to Ameriabank to promote sustainable energy and support small businesses in Armenia
One Success Story: Trimming the SpiritsOne Success Story: Trimming the Spirits
EDB projects 2.9% growth in aggregate GDP of Bank`s member states in  2022EDB projects 2.9% growth in aggregate GDP of Bank`s member states in  2022
Representatives of Trade Mission of RF and EFSD discuss financing of  investment projects in Armenia and support for Russian exportersRepresentatives of Trade Mission of RF and EFSD discuss financing of  investment projects in Armenia and support for Russian exporters
4.3% year-on-year increase in economic activity in Armenia in  Jan-Oct, 20214.3% year-on-year increase in economic activity in Armenia in  Jan-Oct, 2021
New operator of Meghri FEZ plans to build a food packaging plantNew operator of Meghri FEZ plans to build a food packaging plant
Government subsidies to Syunik region reached 1.1 billion drams Government subsidies to Syunik region reached 1.1 billion drams 
Armenian authorities consider building three more bypass roads in  Syunik regionArmenian authorities consider building three more bypass roads in  Syunik region
Armenian government approves signing of Agreement on navigation seals  in EAEUArmenian government approves signing of Agreement on navigation seals  in EAEU
Contract for Kaps reservoir construction put out to tenderContract for Kaps reservoir construction put out to tender
VPOS number steadily increasing in Armenia  VPOS number steadily increasing in Armenia  
Non-cash plastic transactions continue to gain momentum; 30%  threshold in total volume has already been passedNon-cash plastic transactions continue to gain momentum; 30%  threshold in total volume has already been passed
Armenia to acquire a loan of 20 million euros for modernization of  urban land transportArmenia to acquire a loan of 20 million euros for modernization of  urban land transport
Russian company won tender on Ajapnyak subway station development  project: Yerevan Mayor hopes earliest possible financing of projectRussian company won tender on Ajapnyak subway station development  project: Yerevan Mayor hopes earliest possible financing of project
Black Friday CashBack from Converse BankBlack Friday CashBack from Converse Bank
Armenian-Belarusian Economic Cooperation Commission to meet in Minsk  Armenian-Belarusian Economic Cooperation Commission to meet in Minsk  
2.621mln plastic cards in Armenia`s banking market 2.621mln plastic cards in Armenia`s banking market 
Armenia, Belarus study prospects for cooperation in organic  agricultureArmenia, Belarus study prospects for cooperation in organic  agriculture
Mher Grigoryan, Sergei Glazyev discuss main areas of cooperation  within EAEUMher Grigoryan, Sergei Glazyev discuss main areas of cooperation  within EAEU
Macroeconomic Research Centre at Financial Research Institute of RF  ready to assist RA Economy Ministry Macroeconomic Research Centre at Financial Research Institute of RF  ready to assist RA Economy Ministry 
Delegation of RA Economy to get acquainted with peculiarities of  operations with precious metals and stones in Bishkek within EAEUDelegation of RA Economy to get acquainted with peculiarities of  operations with precious metals and stones in Bishkek within EAEU
Armenia can be a major exporter of intellectual property and software  - Chi-Foon ChanArmenia can be a major exporter of intellectual property and software  - Chi-Foon Chan
Bank loans in all member-states to be available to all EAEU citizens Bank loans in all member-states to be available to all EAEU citizens 
Armenia most important EAEU member - Ilya Malkina Armenia most important EAEU member - Ilya Malkina 
How to escape the “black” side of Black Friday?  Some tips from Converse BankHow to escape the “black” side of Black Friday?  Some tips from Converse Bank
Allow yourself more: Rocket line - the leading Armenian Allow yourself more: Rocket line - the leading Armenian "Buy now, pay later" payment format from Idram&IDBank digital platform
On November 24-27, Yerevan will host 1st International Trade and  Industrial Exhibition On November 24-27, Yerevan will host 1st International Trade and  Industrial Exhibition "Eurasia 2021" and Eurasian Business Forum 
ICAO and IATA provide identification codes to FLYONE ARMENIA ICAO and IATA provide identification codes to FLYONE ARMENIA 
Pashinyan: Armenia registered stable growth rates of trade with the  EEU countriesPashinyan: Armenia registered stable growth rates of trade with the  EEU countries
New foil annealing mode reduces scrapNew foil annealing mode reduces scrap
Ameriabank to start distribution of $8mln USD tranche bonds on Nov.  25 Ameriabank to start distribution of $8mln USD tranche bonds on Nov.  25 
Read more


Exchange rates
03.12.2021
RUB6.650.04
USD489.991.49
EUR553.440.31
GBP650.950.12
CAD382.00-0.15
JPY43.240.07
CNY76.880.22
CHF532.141.45