Central Bank of Armenia improved forecast for economic growth in 2017 to 3.2-4.4% from previous 2.2- 3.2%

ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia improved the forecast for economic growth in 2017 to 3.2-4.4% from the previously forecasted 2.2-3.2%. The press service of the Central Bank of Armenia told ArmInfo.

The Central Bank also improved the forecast for GDP growth for the first quarter of this year within the limits of 1.9-5.2%, taking into account the high growth rates than expected, the growth of economic activity in January-February by 6.2% per annum, which mainly came from the industrial sector, wholesale trade, purchase/sale of cars, the sphere of services.

In the next May forecast, the Central Bank intends to revise forecasts of Armenia's economic growth for a 3-year period in the direction of increasing the range of rates, and as regards inflation, a faster recovery is expected at the target threshold. Nevertheless, the Central Bank believes that the pace of economic growth in the medium term will largely depend on the reforms carried out by the government, the effectiveness of domestic investment and attracting foreign investment, and the quality of capital expenditures for improving infrastructures.

To remind, in the previous February forecast of the Central Bank the following planks appeared: GDP growth in 2017 by 2.2-3.2% with acceleration in 2018 to 2.8-3.9% and in 2019 to 3.2-4,4%, where the GDP growth forecast for 2016 was also updated from the previous 1.3-1.8% to 0.3-0.5%. These are the forecast ranges of 30% probability, and according to the 90% probability in 2017, according to the February forecast, GDP growth was expected to be 1.2-4.6%, in 2018 - 1.3-5.8%, in 2019 - 1,3-6,7%, against the adjusted 0,1-0,9% in 2016. By sector of the economy, the following forecasts were also given for 2017: in the industrial sector - by 4.4-5.2%, construction - by 2.5-3.1% in the sphere of services - growth by 2.4-3%, The agricultural sector - an increase of 4.5-5.3%. For money transfers of individuals, the Central Bank expects in 2017 to reach a 4-6% growth (against the forecast for 2016 the decline of 6-8%). The forecast for the current account deficit to GDP for 2017 is improved to 0-2% (against previously forecasted for 2017 1.5-2.5% and projected for 2016 2 - 3%). In terms of export of goods and services, the Central Bank forecasted a growth of 5-7% in 2017, and an increase of 0-2% in imports.

To note, the World Bank in January forecast laid the GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 by 2.7%. The IMF predicted the GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 by 3.4%. Meanwhile, the IMF and the World Bank predict GDP growth in Russia in 2017 at 1.5%. EDB expects GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 by 2.9%. Fitch forecasted the growth of Armenia's GDP in 2017 by 2.1%, with an acceleration to 3.1% in 2018. The state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2017 laid the GDP growth by 3.2%. According to statistical data, in Armenia GDP growth in 2016 slackened to 0.2% from 3% in 2015 and 3.6% in 2014.