Thursday, April 20 2017 21:58
Karina Melikyan

Fitch Rating: Stronger Capital Buffers, Growth Prospects Moderate

Fitch Rating: Stronger Capital Buffers, Growth Prospects Moderate

ArmInfo. International rating agency Fitch Rating  released new review on 

Armenian Bank System. Particularly it notes.  

Recapitalisation  Completed:

The Armenian banking sector has entered 2017 in better  shape as the recapitalisation required to meet the increased minimum  capital standard from 2017 has been completed. Sector capital grew by about AMD164bn in 2015-2016 (36% of the end-2014 stock), following  the central bank's announcement of new capital requirements in 2014. As a result, capital buffers have improved markedly: the total  capital adequacy ratio (CAR) was up to 20% at end-2016 from 16.2% at  end-2015 and 14.5% at end-2014.  

Sector Consolidation:

The  recapitalisation requirements mostly affected the mid-sized and small  banking segments, triggering M&A activity. In 2016, the number of  banks decreased to 17 from 21, and we view further consolidation as  likely as competitive pressures intensify.  Market shares of the top  10 banks grew most notably in 4Q16, driven by very rapid credit  growth at Ameria and Anelik (mainly cash-backed transactions with  related parties and/or clients) and, to a lesser extent, by M&A deals  involving Ardshinbank and Ararat. 

Growth Trends Mixed: Credit growth has been moderate (6% in 9M16) and  uneven across the sector. Foreign-owned lenders were mostly  deleveraging, focusing on asset quality issues, but expansion by a  few domestically owned banks added a further 10% to sector loan  growth in 4Q16. Transactions with non-residents accounted for over  70% of this. 

Underlying credit demand has yet to recover in line with improving  macro trends (Fitch forecasts GDP growth of 2.0% in 2017 and 2.9% in  2018, up from 0.2% in 2016) and new lending will remain moderate.

Asset Quality Stabilisation: The NPL ratio was down to below 7% at  end-2016 (end-3Q16:  9.7%), reflecting both the denominator effect  from portfolio growth in 4Q16 and balance- sheet clean-up activity  accompanying recent M&A deals. Borrower performance remains sensitive  to recovery in domestic demand and stability of the dram (63% of  loans are in foreign currency). 

Profitability Modest: Improving profitability remains a challenge,  and will be dependent on growth potential and asset quality trends.  Returns on equity are likely to stay low, prompting owners to take  strategic decisions on the development of their banking businesses. 

What to Watch

Economy, Currency Stability: We expect a further  reduction in sector vulnerabilities, underpinned by the recovering  economy and relative currency stability, while stronger capital  buffers provide resilience against any recurring pressures on asset  quality.  

Ratings Impact: Neutral 

Improvements in the economy would be supportive of banks' credit  profiles, although upgrades are unlikely in the near term, given that  the banks are rated in line with the sovereign.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News
We are going round in circles: Aram Kocharyan on  current IT  situation in ArmeniaWe are going round in circles: Aram Kocharyan on  current IT  situation in Armenia
Net direct foreign investments in Armenia`s economy up Net direct foreign investments in Armenia`s economy up 
RA president signs laws nationalizing ENA CJSCRA president signs laws nationalizing ENA CJSC
Responsible innovations instead of offshores - CB Responsible innovations instead of offshores - CB 
Armenia, Uruguay to increase bilateral trade turnover Armenia, Uruguay to increase bilateral trade turnover 
Armenian vice-premier takes part in EEC Council`s meeting Armenian vice-premier takes part in EEC Council`s meeting 
Yerevan to host Black Sea Trade and Development Bank`s Annual Meeting  Yerevan to host Black Sea Trade and Development Bank`s Annual Meeting  
Solid Municipal Waste Management project launched in HrazdanSolid Municipal Waste Management project launched in Hrazdan
Armenian IT sector`s output developed as compared with other regional states - expert Armenian IT sector`s output developed as compared with other regional states - expert 
Lawyer on `legal terror` surrounding ENA Lawyer on `legal terror` surrounding ENA 
AraratBank participated in the WEPs regional experience-sharing workshopAraratBank participated in the WEPs regional experience-sharing workshop
1,507 trucks with apricots leave for Russia since beginning of summer 1,507 trucks with apricots leave for Russia since beginning of summer 
TechWeek transforms Vanadzor into an innovation hubTechWeek transforms Vanadzor into an innovation hub
In Q1 2025, unemployment rate in Armenia decreased to 13.9%In Q1 2025, unemployment rate in Armenia decreased to 13.9%
Moody`s upgrades Converse Bank`s ratingsMoody`s upgrades Converse Bank`s ratings
Armenia`s industrial sector is experiencing a significant  declineArmenia`s industrial sector is experiencing a significant  decline
Power generation in Armenia increased by 3.6% in a yearPower generation in Armenia increased by 3.6% in a year
Armenia`s State Revenue Committee proposes postponing payment of  road, environmental taxes, entry duties Armenia`s State Revenue Committee proposes postponing payment of  road, environmental taxes, entry duties 
46 trucks with Armenian brandy enter Russia 46 trucks with Armenian brandy enter Russia 
Expert: Armenia has every chance to become a key regional  hub for  innovative solutionsExpert: Armenia has every chance to become a key regional  hub for  innovative solutions
IDBank issues the 3rd, 4th and 5th tranches of bonds of 2025IDBank issues the 3rd, 4th and 5th tranches of bonds of 2025
ARMSWISSBANK Launches Mastercard World – A New Premium CardARMSWISSBANK Launches Mastercard World – A New Premium Card
Ministry of Economy: Compared to 2018, job numbers in Armenia  increased by 33.9%Ministry of Economy: Compared to 2018, job numbers in Armenia  increased by 33.9%
Illegal mining in Armenia`s Syunik causes AMD 63mln damage to public Illegal mining in Armenia`s Syunik causes AMD 63mln damage to public 
Rospotrebnadzor requested additional information from competent  authorities in Armenia regarding the reason for the ban of Eskimo ice  cream Rospotrebnadzor requested additional information from competent  authorities in Armenia regarding the reason for the ban of Eskimo ice  cream 
Pashinyan discusses steps for establishing a major AI data center in  ArmeniaPashinyan discusses steps for establishing a major AI data center in  Armenia
In June,  Armenia`s annual inflation rate increased to 3.9%  driven  by higher prices for food  and servicesIn June,  Armenia`s annual inflation rate increased to 3.9%  driven  by higher prices for food  and services
Armenian products to enter Cyprus and US markets: CIBRS announces National Warehouse program strategyArmenian products to enter Cyprus and US markets: CIBRS announces National Warehouse program strategy
European Investment Bank remains Armenia`s key partner in  infrastructure projects - MinisterEuropean Investment Bank remains Armenia`s key partner in  infrastructure projects - Minister
Armenian Parliament gives  Armenian Parliament gives  "green light" to nationalization of ENA
Armenia`s dividends from ZCMC $113mln since 2022Armenia`s dividends from ZCMC $113mln since 2022
Ardshinbank summed up the raffle organized for Mastercard Business cardholdersArdshinbank summed up the raffle organized for Mastercard Business cardholders
Armenia extends ban on export of scrap metal until Feb. 1 2026 Armenia extends ban on export of scrap metal until Feb. 1 2026 
62 trucks with Armenian brandy cross Russian border 62 trucks with Armenian brandy cross Russian border 
Armenia to fix tariff quota on individual types of goods imported  from Iran Armenia to fix tariff quota on individual types of goods imported  from Iran 
Narek Karapetyan: Almost all infrastructure companies, except for  ENA, have increased their tariffs for servicesNarek Karapetyan: Almost all infrastructure companies, except for  ENA, have increased their tariffs for services
EIB: Education is one of key areas of partnership between EU-Armenia EIB: Education is one of key areas of partnership between EU-Armenia 
Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister participates in  4th International  Conference on Financing for Development in SevilleArmenian Deputy Foreign Minister participates in  4th International  Conference on Financing for Development in Seville
Armenian Prime Minister, President of  Trafigura Group discuss  potential  cooperation  in mining sector  Armenian Prime Minister, President of  Trafigura Group discuss  potential  cooperation  in mining sector  
ADB to provide Armenia with EUR236 million for construction of  Sisian-Kajaran roadADB to provide Armenia with EUR236 million for construction of  Sisian-Kajaran road
Vassilis Maragos: EU willing to strengthen technological cooperation with Armenia through concrete stepsVassilis Maragos: EU willing to strengthen technological cooperation with Armenia through concrete steps
Ardshinbank at the Forefront of Digital Security: Sponsor and Participant of BugBounty 2025 EventArdshinbank at the Forefront of Digital Security: Sponsor and Participant of BugBounty 2025 Event
Armenia`s regulator  approved the sale of 100% of GNC-ALFA s shares  to Viva Armenia CJSCArmenia`s regulator  approved the sale of 100% of GNC-ALFA s shares  to Viva Armenia CJSC
 International Chamber of Commerce ready to assist Armenia in hosting COP-17 International Chamber of Commerce ready to assist Armenia in hosting COP-17
Armenia to extend ban on ferrous metal exportsArmenia to extend ban on ferrous metal exports
IDBank Opens a New Branch at Homplex MallIDBank Opens a New Branch at Homplex Mall
MONEYVAL experts to visit Armenia in September to assess work on money laundering control MONEYVAL experts to visit Armenia in September to assess work on money laundering control 
Goods traceability to be improved in Armenia Goods traceability to be improved in Armenia 
Vaharshapan and Khoi communities to be merged Vaharshapan and Khoi communities to be merged 
Armenian NA OKs ENA nationalization Armenian NA OKs ENA nationalization 
Viva celebrates 20th anniversary: Armenia`s high-tech industry  minister on reforms in Armenia`s telecommunication industry Viva celebrates 20th anniversary: Armenia`s high-tech industry  minister on reforms in Armenia`s telecommunication industry 
Economic diversification meets Armenia`s interests - Kaja Kallas Economic diversification meets Armenia`s interests - Kaja Kallas 
5.1% increase in number of jobs in Armenia 5.1% increase in number of jobs in Armenia 
AraratBank: Special Rate for SWIFT Transfers up to EUR 20,000AraratBank: Special Rate for SWIFT Transfers up to EUR 20,000
Team Telecom Armenia, Team Systems under one roof: new Team Place  smart solutions center  openedTeam Telecom Armenia, Team Systems under one roof: new Team Place  smart solutions center  opened
Armenian Parliament discussing  nationalization of Electric Networks  of Armenia CJSCArmenian Parliament discussing  nationalization of Electric Networks  of Armenia CJSC
Armenia values development of  cooperation with Denmark in  high  technology and renewable energyArmenia values development of  cooperation with Denmark in  high  technology and renewable energy
ArmSwissBank: First in Armenia to Publish a Climate Transition PlanArmSwissBank: First in Armenia to Publish a Climate Transition Plan
Ucom Launches 5G Network in Abovyan and EjmiatsinUcom Launches 5G Network in Abovyan and Ejmiatsin
Armenia`s government to be entitled to approve new vehicle purchase support programmesArmenia`s government to be entitled to approve new vehicle purchase support programmes
Read more
Exchange rates
09.07.2025
RUB4.910.01
USD383.82-0.37
EUR449.11-1.47
GBP521.34-0.31
CAD280.24-1.11
JPY26.18-0.06
CNY53.46-0.08
CHF482.060.44